04/02/2020 – When Life Gives You Lemons…

Hello…

My name is Keith Eckstein and I’m the creator of Place Profits.

Now, you might know me better as the creator of FocusRatings.com and AdvanceRatings.com – two capable ratings agencies which produce daily UK and Irish ratings but, in totally different ways.

Now, one day I was working on Focus Ratings R5 (the then current version of the ratings) and wondered to myself… “I wonder what the results would be if the horse was top rated on Focus Ratings and also top rated on Advance Ratings?”.

After all, if two totally different ratings agencies (which work out ratings in totally different ways) choose the same horse as the best in the race then that horse is probably going to do pretty well.

Thus, Focus Ratings R6 was born – a horse is top rated on R6 if it is both top rated on Focus Ratings R5 and on Advance Ratings.

Read More about When Life Gives You Lemons…


04/02/2020 – The Hare and the Tortoise…

In this article I want to explain my personal approach to betting and how that might apply to you.

I like high strike rate systems…

Personally, I far prefer high strike rate systems to riskier lower strike rate systems. This is partly to do with my character…

I’m the sort of person who enjoys going for long walk in our beautiful Breton countryside or slowly driving down our pretty country lanes.

You’d never catch me going parachuting (it does seem rather strange to me to throw yourself out of a perfectly good airplane) or going to a track day (far too fast and furious for me.)

So, given the choice of a 40% strike rate system which returns 10% profits on stakes or…

A 10% strike rate system that returns 30% profits on stakes, I’d chose the former rather than the latter 8 days a week, even though the latter is far more profitable.

And, the reason being isn’t just down to my low risk character…

It’s also because, with the higher strike rate, I’d be able to stake a larger percentage of my bank and, thus, end up making more profit in the long run.

Because, of course, it’s profits that count.

It’s profits that count…

Now, when someone talks about a betting system, they’ll always mention Profits on Stakes.

Read More about The Hare and the Tortoise…


04/02/2020 – The Annuity System…

What I’m hoping to explain here is how I personally manage my bank; I use what I call The Annuity System.

What is the Annuity System?

Basically, it is very simple…

1). I start out with a bank; this has to be money that I can afford to lose. If it takes me a few extra months to save up this money then, so be it.

2). I then work out my stakes; for Place Profits (with its 80% strike rate)I am happy with a 20 point bank. Now, for the purposes of this explanation I say that the starting bank is £2,000 and, thus, I am initially betting to £100 stakes.

3). I then decide on what percentage stake out I want. With Place Profits I think that the sweet spot is a take out of 60% of monthly profits for those months where there is a profit. I then increase the bank by the remaining 40% of the monthly profits. Then I adjust the stakes to take account of the increased bank.

For Place Profits I think that it is better to do this on a monthly basis but there’s nothing to stop you taking profits and re-calculating your bank (and, thus, your stakes) on a weekly basis. Because of the way the results cluster, you can often have a losing week but it is quite rare to have a losing month.

For months where we don’t make a profit we stick with the previous month’s staking level. You can get away with this with a system that has an 80% strike rate.

The spreadsheet that I am using to display the data is available at… the-annuity-system.xlsx

It’s probably easier to give you a walk through of how this works in practice…

Read More about The Annuity System…


04/02/2020 – How I Built the System…

I started off with a spreadsheet with 2 years of R6 top rated horse data (2018 & 2019.)

I added in a column to show how many places would be paid.

Obviously, I didn’t want to add in too many filters and, all of the filters that I did use, had to make sense. If you’re starting with a good data set then you don’t need too many filters to make a profitable system.

The first thing that I did was to set a starting point. Without any filters I created a pivot table and found the following…

  • There were a total of 21787 top rated (on R6) horses.
  • This equates to 30 selections a day.
  • The strike rate (for place wins) was 54.56%

Read More about How I Built the System…


26/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Whilst GB and Irish racing are having a break, I have been working on a new project so that I can give you some racing during this dry period.

Racing is still going on behind closed doors in Hong Kong and Australia.

I am working on a ratings system for Hong Kong racing – Compass Ratings.

Compass Ratings uses the same magic formula that I created for AdvanceRatings.com

If all goes well, I should have the last code module finished, installed and tested by about 2pm this afternoon.

Once that is done I will be able to produce ratings for the two meetings a week that are held at Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

What does this mean for you?

Well, as soon as I’ve got the website tidied up I will create free memberships for each and every Place Profits member.

Read More about Morning News


27/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Following yesterday’s Morning News I’ve received a lot of feedback from you.

Most of you seem to be interested in the new possible staking plans for Place Profits.

I’ll be working on this next week and will update as soon as I’ve got some results.

I’ve also had a number of conversations with an Australian friend and am starting to find a suitable data source for Australian ratings.

These will be primarily for the Australian market but I’m sure that you won’t mind additional ratings whilst GB and Irish racing is at a halt.

And, on a totally non horse racing note…

SDC10020Yesterday, in my little village in rural Brittany, the Thursday morning market was held but it was only about a quarter of the normal size.

And, the Gendarmes were there to ensure that people kept their distance from each other.

After the market one poor lad was stopped by the Gendarmes and found not to have his attestation (the form we have to download from the government website, print out and sign if we wish to go out.)

Click on the images if you want to see them full size.

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28/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ve literally been up nearly all night getting Compass Ratings finished.

I haven’t got round to writing the code to send out the ratings yet so I have attached them here.

I have left the ratings as simple as possible but, if I’m missing any vital data that you’d like to see…

Let me know.

There’s plenty of space for more columns.

I have done some historical analysis of all 1838 races from the 1st of January 2018 up until (and including) last Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley.

The details are shown below.

2020-03-28--1585368822_855x291_scrot

Click on the image to see it full size.

As you can see…

The ratings appear to be blindly profitable for the top rated horse.

I’ve manually audited the first 3 months and it all looks good.

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29/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Thank you for your feedback on yesterday’s Morning News.

Most of it, I have to say…

Was about the Genie joke rather than horse racing stuff.

Based upon the horse racing stuff that was discussed, I shall be adding a confidence column to the Compass Ratings PDFs – that sort of makes sense to me and I can’t, for the life of me, think why I didn’t do that in the first place.

After a very busy week, today is a day off for me.

I’m not sure what I’ll be getting up to (under the current circumstances) but I do have a horrible feeling that…

Housework beckons!

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30/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

It is nice to have some results to waffle about.

We got 3 top rated winners from yesterday’s 10 races at Sha Tin.

The prices weren’t good but we did get the forecast in Race 7 (the 9:10 race) – the Quinella (forecast) paid 10.50.

One of the members mentioned that he only bet on the 4 races yesterday where the CPR (Compass Rating) was 2.0 or greater…

3 of those 4 top rated horses won.

A 75% strike rate isn’t such a bad start for a strategy.

That might be an angle to look at and I’ll do some analysis to find the optimal CPR to use.

Another member noticed that certain jockeys were more successful than others.

It seems that, in Hong Kong, there are some superstar jockeys; they get the best rides. Thus you put a talented jockey on a very good horse and, of course, they’re going to win. Obviously, the local Chinese know this and, thus, prices will be low.

I’ll be spending this week adding content to CompassRatings.com and trying to come up with strategies and angles to help us benefit from the ratings. – I’ll update you, every morning, with links to the additions.

I should be able to get Wednesday’s ratings out this afternoon or, tomorrow morning at the latest.

If you have any suggestions or requests for Compass Ratings, please let me know.

I imagine that, once GB and Irish racing comes back, we might still end up using Hong Kong racing twice a week as another source of potential income – think of it as high quality flat turf racing even if its happening 8,000 miles away.

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31/03/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I have been doing some work on trying to filter the Compass Ratings selections to see if a more systematic approach can be created to better profit from them.

As I mentioned yesterday, one member bet on the 4 races on Sunday where the CPR (Compass Rating) of the top rated horse was 2.0 or more.

3 of those 4 horses won.

Another Place Profits member mentioned that, if you bet on any top rated horse with a CPR of 2.0 or more in races where no other horse has a CPR of 2.0 or more, then you get a 100% strike rate.

He must have spent hours going through the spreadsheet determining that.

Andy C. If you’re ever in my part of back of beyond Brittany, I’ll buy you a beer (or two!)

Personally, I think that Confidence (the percentage difference between the CPR of the top rated horse and that of the second rated horse) is going to play a major part – that’s what I’ll be working on today.

I have looked at the performance of the top rated horse dependent on its CPR.

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01/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, we have some racing today…

8 races at Sha Tin.

You can bet on Hong Kong racing by using the Betfair sportsbook.

Of the traditional bookies, UniBet.com probably has the cleanest (in my opinion) interface.

I’m in a bit of an email backlog at the moment;

It’s like someone has put a big sign up on the internet – a sign that says…“Stop what you’re doing, no matter what you’re doing, stop right now and…

Email Keith!”

I am gradually catching up though so please be patient.

The links to today’s rating for Sha Tin are…

Ratings in PDF format (top 3 rated horses.)

Ratings in PDF format (all horses.)

Read More about Morning News


02/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, not such a great day for the ratings yesterday but…

That happens from time to time.

In the long run the ratings are blindly profitable so any bad days should put into perspective.

I have been working on some strategies to best profit from the Hong Kong ratings and should be able to update you on my findings over the weekend.

I have also been looking at draw bias at Happy Valley…

That has given me some interesting things to think about.

Once again, once I have my data in some sort of presentable order, I’ll publish it for you to see.

Read More about Morning News


03/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’d like to thank all of you who contacted me to say that Wednesday’s results from Sha Tin weren’t as bad as I thought…

On reflection it wasn’t so bad after all; I think that I was expecting more – perhaps I’m being too greedy.

Also, Fortune Happiness was a non-runner and that was my sure fire winner.

However, I made a mistake; I was looking at the results coming in on the Hong Kong Jockey Club website and they had Fortune Happiness marked as coming in in last place. The saddlecloth number was highlighted in a different colour and I didn’t know that that means it was a non-runner.

Thus, I thought that the one horse that I had highlighted as our best hope came last – a bit embarrassing – when, if fact, it was a non-runner.

So, 2 top rated winners from the 7 remaining races (a 28.6% strike rate) with prices (dependent on who you bet with) of 12/1 and 8/1.

I was very interested to see that some of you have already worked out strategies to benefit from Compass Ratings; I am working on some strategies which I hope to publish over the weekend.

Sunday’s Compass Ratings for the 10 races at Sha Tin on Sunday should be available for you first thing tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News


04/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A quick look at the ratings for tomorrow morning’s meeting at Sha Tin show three races (out of ten) that are of interest to me…

6:45am – The top rated horse (Ka Ying Star) has a CPR of 2.44 and, more importantly, has a CPR of about 28% greater than the second rated horse.

9:10am – Our top rated horse, Hot King Prawn, has a CPR of 2.62 – historically, top rated horses with a CPR of 2.6 to 2.69 have a 36.36% strike rate and return a 110% profit on stakes.

10:50am – Our top rated horse (Beauty Day) has a CPR of 2.10 and has a CPR 40% greater than that of the second rated horse.

2020-04-04--1585971461_544x303_scrot

The link to Sunday’s Compass Ratings for Sha Tin (top three rated horses) is here… Compass Ratings-2020-04-05.pdf

The link to Sunday’s Compass Ratings (full) for Sha Tin is here… Compass Ratings-Full-2020-04-05.pdf

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06/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As you all seem to be using the Hong Kong ratings in different ways…

I shall just sumarise yesterday’s results from Sha Tin.

From the top three rated horses we got…

4 wins,

3 seconds,

3 third paces and

1 reverse forecast.

I received this email from one happy member…

“Hi Keith, that’s me done for the day and another great profit.

Victoriam@ 3/1

Beauty Generation@ 2/1

Helene Leadingstar@12/1

My strategy does still involve course and distance form, but you definitely have to seriously look at any horse in the top 3 that is ridden by Zac Purton, Joao Moreira or Karis Teetan.

Thanks, cheers XXXX.

p.s. still like Dublin Star, Ping Hai Bravo but happy with today’s winnings.”

It might be worth keeping those Jockeys in mind.

I will be looking at adding course and distance form to the ratings PDF.

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07/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I am sorry for the lateness of today’s Morning News.

I set up a script to create the ratings overnight but it didn’t run so I have had to manually run them this morning.

The link to Wednesday’s Ratings (top three horses) in PDF format is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-08.pdf

The link to Wednesday’s Ratings (all horses) in PDF format is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-08.pdf

Read More about Morning News


08/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

We have 8 races at Happy Valley today.

I’m not going to try to suggest which ones we should be interested in as I’m still bogged down in data looking at Jockey strike rate and draw bias.

I’m also making great strides with making the ratings work for Australian racing.

It’s funny; I thought I have enough of a job when we had GB and Irish racing…

Now that we don’t, I find myself working three times as hard.

I’m not complaining though.

The link to today’s Ratings (top three horses) in PDF format is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-08.pdf

The link to today’s Ratings (all horses) in PDF format is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-08.pdf

Read More about Morning News


09/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

One winner and one second placed horse from our top rated horse (from 8 races)…

Isn’t stellar performance but, it sort of reminds me that Compass Ratings is just that; a ratings service and not a tipping service.

I am still drowning in data, trying to work out draw bias and jockey stats but, one thing is for sure…

Sha Tin and Happy Valley need to be treated as two very different racecourses.

A big thank you to everyone who has sent me links to help me with this work; I will update you all once I am absolutely sure that I have got things right.

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11/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

If you check the first race on the ratings for tomorrow’s racing at Sha Tin, you’ll notice that none of the horses have a CPR.

This is because the have no form.

I am working on some new code to identify those sort of races and display the message… “There is insufficient data for this race” as I do for Focus Ratings.

However, rather than rush it (and almost certainly getting it wrong) I’ll have it fixed for Tuesday’s ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley.

So, my advice is to ignore the 5:30am race.

The link to tomorrow’s ratings (top 3 rated) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-12.pdf

The link to tomorrow’s ratings (all horses) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-12.pdf

The only stand out race for me is the 10:10 where our top rated horse is Fantastic Show which is, according to the Racing Post, the forecast favourite. The jockey, Joao Moreira, has won 1 out of every 4 races that he ridden in over the last 14 days.

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13/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A reasonable day for us at Sha Tin yesterday…

The race that I highlighted on Saturday was the 10:10 where our top rated horse was Fantastic Show which was, according to the Racing Post, the forecast favourite. The jockey, Joao Moreira, has won 1 out of every 4 races that he ridden in over the last 14 days.

Fantastic Show won at 7/4

Perhaps our best race was the 8 am where our second rated horse won at 127/20.

I’ll be getting the ratings for Wednesday’s racing at Happy Valley first thing tomorrow morning.

It is an evening meeting so the first race should be at 10:45 am UK time.

2020-04-13--1586755944_314x233_scrotI’ve take a screenshot from the Hong Kong Jockey Club website, it might be worth looking at…

Daniel, my man in Hong Kong (actually he lives in Thailand but that’s not far away, is it?) who is a font of valuable knowledge on all things related to Hong Kong racing (having lived in Hong Kong) passed me this message a few days ago…

“Grant Van Niekerk has been sacked by the HKJC, it seems a domestic problem, and not related to anything horse racing wise.”

Many thanks for all your advice, Daniel.

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14/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Our man in Hong Kong (although he now lives in Thailand) sent me a mail yesterday with more vitally important information for us.

“After 22 years of betting on HK Racing, in my opinion, the most accurate write-ups and information on Jockeys, trainers, plus who are current best-informed tipsters for Naps, quinellas, Trio’s Tierce, etc is to be found at… https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing – that’s the South China Morning Post racing site.

Once there click onto racecards for some good info from Phillip Woo, then click onto Tips and Preview this will give you all the stats of everything I have mentioned above, this is invaluable information and will assist anyone who wants to bet on HK racing.

The racing info writeups will not appear until the day of the racing, however, it’s worth checking late in the day as sometimes it has been made available early.

There is normally some good write-ups the day after the racing which also makes good reading, click onto Results, it’s also worth clicking onto Talking points, all these things are available on the top taskbar when you open the racing page.”

Once again, Daniel, thank you very much for sharing this with us.

The link to the ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley (Top 3 Rated horses) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-15.pdf

The link to the ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley (All horses) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-15.pdf

The 2 races that I shall be concentrating on are the…

13:45 – Super Winner – the top rated horse has a CPR of greater than 2.0 and the jockey, Joao Moreira, could probably be entered on a hobby horse and would still win.

15:15 – Confucius Day – the top rated horse has a CPR of 2.33 which is 28% greater than the second rated horse.

2020-04-13--1586755944_314x233_scrotHowever, I shall also be looking at the 13:15 – Happy Good Guys ridden by C Y Ho.

The horse has a CPR of 1.91 but the second rated horse only has a CPR of 0.66 which makes Happy Good Guys a far better horse than all other horses in the race as far as the ratings are concerned.

As you can see from the image, C Y Ho has a pretty good record.

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16/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

The race of the day yesterday has to be…

Happy Valley – 14:15 – where our top rated horse, Beauty Spirit, won at 101/10

With that one winner, by blindly backing the top rated horse in all 9 races, we would have made a profit on the day.

Daniel (our man in Hong Kong – sort of) had this to share…

“One interesting stat that I like is that if you had backed the 2 top jockeys, JM and ZP to single $10 HKD stakes you would have caught an almighty cold (-$778 and -$945), both are over bet and, as I have said before, screw up the betting market,

The following jockeys are the only ones making profits, Chadd Schofield, Matthew Poon and T. Piccone, so well worth keeping an eye on.

Peter Yui, David Hall, and Tony Millard are the 3 trainers making money same applies they are worth keeping an eye on at the moment.”

Once again Daniel, thank you for sharing – many thanks.

I will have the ratings for Sunday’s meeting at Sha Tin ready first thing Saturday morning.

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18/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I suppose that, for me, the interesting race at Sunday’s meeting at Sha Tin is the 10:15 Cornwall Stakes.

And not just because I was born in Cornwall!

The top 3 rated horses all have a rating of greater than 2.0 and the 4th rated horse has a rating of 1.63

This would indicated that, according to the ratings, the race should be won by one of the top 3 rated horses.

Also, I’m kind of intrigued about the 6:45 Somerset Handicap as it seems to have a great Jockey/Trainer combination.

If you remember what Daniel (our man in Hong Kong – sort of) shared with us last week…

“The following jockeys are the only ones making profits, Chadd Schofield, Matthew Poon and T. Piccone, so well worth keeping an eye on.

Peter Yui, David Hall, and Tony Millard are the 3 trainers making money same applies they are worth keeping an eye on at the moment.”

Once again, thanks to Daniel for that.

As you’ll see, in the 6:45, for the top rated horse, we have a profitable jockey with Chadd Schofield and a profitable trainer with Tony Millard.

Our 3rd rated horse is ridden by Joao Moreira whom Daniel suggests is over bet; thus, there should be a good price for our top rated horse.

Might be worth keeping an eye on?

The link to Sunday’s Sha Tin ratings (top 3 rated horses) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-19.pdf

The link to Sunday’s Sha Tin ratings (All horses) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-19.pdf

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20/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, I’m not going to crow about yesterday’s Sha Tin results…

At least, not too much!

3 of the 10 races were won by a top rated horse.

7 of the 10 races were won by a top 3 rated horse.

The real highlight must be the 9:40 Devon handicap where our top rated horse, Mega Heart, won at 30/1!

I’l be getting the ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley out first thing tomorrow morning.

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21/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Just a heads up…

Towards the end of the week I shall be promoting Compass Ratings.

If you get an email from me about Compass Ratings please don’t act on it.

If you are a member of Focus Ratings, Early Bird Ratings or Place Profits then you will get Compass Ratings for free.

You will also receive selected meetings for the Australian ratings service (Spotlight Ratings) once that is finished.

The link for the ratings (top 3 rated) for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-22.pdf

The link for the ratings (all horses) for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-22.pdf

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22/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I am not going to comment on today’s ratings as I have made a small change to take draw bias into account but, only for Happy Valley.

I have back tested the change over the last 2 year’s data and it shows a decent improvement.

Daniel (our man in Hong Kong – sort of) shared this with me yesterday afternoon…

“The Racecards are up on the SCMP Racing site.

Down below the race card are the horses that had trouble in running – always worth reading.

To the right is a short vets report which is also worth noting, one of these horses could have been amongst your selections so it’s worth taking on board the available information, I don’t always remember to check it but it’s worth a look if you have time.”

Once again, thank you very much for your help, Daniel.

The link to the SCMP website is… https://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Actually, there is quite a lot of information at the bottom of each racecard page.

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25/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I am hoping that we repeat last Sunday’s results (3 top rated winners from 10 races – one coming in at 30/1 and 7 top three rated winners) tomorrow.

The interesting race, for me, is the 9:40 where the top rated horse has a CPR of 4.10 – I’ve actually manually rated this race just to ensure that that number is right; it is.

The link to Sunday’s Sha Tin ratings (top 3 rated) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-26.pdf

The link to Sunday’s Sha Tin ratings (all horses) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-26.pdf

It’s an afternoon meeting so that means, for us, the racing starts at 5:45am.

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27/04/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Not such a bad day for us, yesterday.

We got 3 top rated winners and 6 top three rated winners from the 10 races.

The first two winners were at decent prices as well

6:45 – Our top rated horse won at 21.50 and our second rated horse came second; our third rated horse was a non runner.

7:15 – Our top rated horse won at 9.25

9:40 – Our top rated horse won at 1.55

With a similar strike rate and returns to last Sunday’s Sha Tin meeting it seems that Sha Tin is a good little money spinner for us.

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28/04/2020 – Morning News

medium wp-image-6347″ />Good morning…

I’ve had a quick look at the ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley.

Nothing stands out but it does look a very balanced meeting.

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Happy Valley (top 3 rated) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-04-29.pdf

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Happy Valley (all runners) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-04-29.pdf

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02/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

There are 11 races at Sha Tin tomorrow but…

You should ignore the first one.

The horses don’t have any form and, thus, can’t be rated.

I am hoping for a repeat of the last two Sundays where we had a 30% strike rate and a 300% Profit on Stakes at Sha Tin.

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Sha Tin (top 3 rated) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-03.pdf

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Happy Valley (all runners) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-03.pdf

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05/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I can’t see any standout races in the ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley but, nothing looks too wrong either.

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Happy Valley (top 3 rated) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-06.pdf

The link for tomorrow’s ratings at Happy Valley (all runners) is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-06.pdf

Lockdown in France

A few of you have asked how life is under lockdown in France…

Below is the form that I have to download and print out and fill out every time I want to go out.

I have to do that every time as I have to date and put the time in (and Tippex isn’t allowed.)

I ran out of toner about a week ago and so I’ve been having to hand write that document once or twice a day – Amazon France have closed their distribution centers apart from essential food and health products – my toner had to come from Amazon Germany and took a week to arrive.

attestation-deplacement-heures-770__w770

Click on the image to see it a bit larger.

Everyone gets checked by the Gendarmes; you get fined if you don’t have your liberty form properly filled in.

SDC10060

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07/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, a pretty good day at Happy Valley yesterday…

If you just concentrate on the top rated horses, there were 9 races but in the first one the top rated horse was a non-runner.

That leaves 8 races.

In the second race the top rated horse won at 3.85 and in the sixth race the top rated horse won at 5.30

Thus, 2 wins from the remaining 8 races and 9.15 points returned to the 8 points staked.

In the second race of the day we got the Quinella; it paid 12.45 – the Quinella Place paid 4.35

French Racing…

Horse racing returns to France (behind closed doors) next Monday.

Now, I sometimes use the formula from Advance Ratings to manually create ratings for French racing for my own purposes. I don’t normally do this on a Monday as my local PMU is closed on Mondays and I do like the atmosphere of placing the bets manually.

However, I shall attempt to create the French ratings for some races for next Monday and, if successful, will share them with you on Monday morning.

I do have to say that I only do the ratings for those races shown by the Racing Post. There are two reasons for this…

1). The Racing Post only shows France races which are Graded or Listed – the ratings work better for these types of races.

2). In order to manually produce the ratings (and it takes me about half an hour per 10 horse race) I need to check each horse’s performance over its last 7 races and I also need the number of runners and the value of the race (in terms of prize money paid to the winning horse.)

I never thought that I’d say this but, the Racing Post is the best site for me to gather this information.

I’ll start off by concentrating on the Graded and Listed races at Parislongchamp but may find time to cover the graded and listed races at Compiegne and Toulouse.

There is French racing on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week so, if Monday goes well, I may be able to cover some of that as well.

Ongoing, even when GB and Irish racing returns, I may occasionally publish French ratings whenever I do them for myself. I will only concentrate on the Gallops as I really don’t understand the Trotting (Harness and Mounted) races at all – they make me laugh; they’re the sort of Benny Hill races of French racing.

bennyhillBy the way, Benny Hill is hugely popular in France – I’m guessing that The Benny Hill show is probably illegal in the UK by now.

From Wikipedia…

Benny Hill was a huge Francophile and enjoyed his visits to France, notably to Marseille, where until the 1980s, he could go to outdoor cafes anonymously, travelling on public transport and socialising with local women.

He spoke French fluently and also knew basic German, Spanish, Dutch, and Italian. Foreign travel was the only luxury that he permitted himself, and even then, he would stay in modest accommodations rather than five-star hotels.

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10/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Another good day for us at Sha Tin yesterday…

3 top rated winners from the 10 races gave us 16.45 point to the 10 points staked.

French Ratings

I have compiled the ratings for tomorrow’s meeting at Longchamps – the link to them is here… http://focusratings.com/french/Longchamps-2020-05-11.pdf

Now, these ratings are in the format that I personally use; I like to just rely on the ratings and not be distracted or confused by things such as form, days since last run, jockey, trainer and so on.

I personally don’t bet on every race – in fact, I probably only get 3 or 4 races a week which suit my style of betting.

The Racing Post is showing 4 French races on Tuesday and I’ll try to get the ratings for these compiled today.

At some point today or tomorrow I’ll write a post on how I personally bet on French racing using my ratings – it’s too complex to explain before breakfast. What I will say is that I can have up to 14 individual bets on a single race. I generally don’t look at those races where the prize money (for the winner) is less than £20,000 and the race that instantly catches my eye is the Longchamps – 13:05 – Prix d’Harcourt – Group 2 – 10 furlongs – £43,475 where there are two stand out competitors.

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10/05/2020 – Sunday Smile…

imagesHello again…

Possibly inspired by the French Ratings that I sent out earlier on, Daniel (who advises me on the Hong Kong racing) kindly shared a video with me.

I actually got a little bit emotional watching this video (the weepy stuff starts at about 1 minute 50 seconds.)

Now, it’s not very often that I get emotional (generally only when Spurs win a football match – once again, not very often) but for a moment I thought that I might have some dust behind my contact lenses…

Until I remembered that I don’t wear contact lenses.

You can download the video here… http://focusratings.com/french/An_Unusual_Horse.mp4 or…

You catch watch it on You Tube… https://youtu.be/Rn5FZHlbbL4

Strangely enough, my local old people’s home/care home/geriatric hospital has animals; 4 donkeys, lots of chickens and, recently, they have adopted some cats and dogs.

The old people also receive visits from a travelling pet service where they can pet guinea pigs and dogs and so on – the link is here… https://www.letelegramme.fr/finistere/huelgoat/ehpad-mont-leroux-des-animaux-mediateurs-24-10-2019-12417040.php#slide-1

Apparently these pet visits have massively improved the quality of life (and the outlook on life) for the old people.

What a great idea.

Back to the video – what a wonderful horse Peyo is!

2020-05-10--1589096774_709x664_scrot

I hope that I have brightened up your Sunday with this, slightly not horse racing related, post.

Have a great day but it might be an idea to have a tissue to hand at around 2 minutes into the video.

As always…

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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11/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Today, in my part of France, lockdown restrictions have been eased.

I can now go out and put my rubbish in the communal wheelie bins without having to download a form and fill it out and sign and date it!

I can now pop out for a bottle of milk without having to download a form and fill it out and sign and date it!

My local bars and restaurants are still closed but most of them have started takeaway services (only 1 person allowed in at a time) so I can have my weekly treat of a meal that I don’t have to cook myself without having to download a form and fill it out and sign and date it!

download (1)I know that it’s only been 2 months but…

It seems an awful lot longer than that.

Please note that the easing of restrictions in France only applies to the South and West of France – Paris (and the heavily populated North-East) are still under strict control.

I feel like I’ve spent the last 20 years digging my escape tunnel with a toothpick.

It’s a bit like escaping from prison!

And, what’s more…

French horse racing is starting (behind closed doors) again today.

French Ratings

I have compiled the ratings for today’s meeting at Longchamps.

I sent them to you yesterday but, if you missed them, the link to them is here… http://focusratings.com/french/Longchamps-2020-05-11.pdf

I will be sending out the ratings for tomorrow’s French horse racing (the 4 races covered by the Racing Post) later on today.

I’ll also be sending out the ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley tomorrow.

Now that this Morning News is out of the way, I’m going to try to get out a post which shows how I, personally, bet on French Horse racing.

I’ll be using Longchamps – 12:25 – Prix de la Grotte – Group 3 – 8 furlongs – £23,729 and Longchamps – 13:05 – Prix d’Harcourt – Group 2 – 10 furlongs – £43,475 as my examples.

Normally, I’m lucky to get 4 races a week to bet on.

Today I can’t bet on those two races that I’ve highlighted (even though I have an online PMU account) because my local PMU is closed today and I do like to do my betting in person.

If I had to describe my French betting style – I’d have to invent a phase such as “Mega-Dutching.”

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12/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

The two French races that I highlighted yesterday…

I’ll be using Longchamps – 12:25 – Prix de la Grotte – Group 3 – 8 furlongs – £23,729 and Longchamps – 13:05 – Prix d’Harcourt – Group 2 – 10 furlongs – £43,475 as my examples.

Both worked out OK for us.

Further down this post I shall try to explain how I pick which French races to rate for me personally to bet upon and…

How I place those bets.

However, I have decided that, as I do this for my own purposes (although I am more than happy to share them with you) I shall only be rating the graded/group/listed races from
now on.

Yesterday was a bit of an issue as all the races have very large fields (and, thus, take longer to rate) and, to be honest, none of the races slightly interested me. Add to that the fact that I can now freely go out for a long walk, it was kind of difficult being tied to my desk.

Hong Kong Ratings

The link to the ratings (top 3 rated) for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley is here…. http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-13.pdf

The link to the ratings (all horses) for tomorrow’s meeting at Happy Valley is here…. http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-13.pdf

French Ratings

The link to the ratings for 4 races at Saint Cloud today is… http://focusratings.com/french/FrenchRatings-2020-05-12.pdf

There is one Group 3 race at Chantilly tomorrow (the 1:12) and I shall be rating that race.

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13/05/2020 – Why a PMU Ain’t Your Average Bookies…

facadeAs you know, I live in France.

Living in France I often notice that it’s the little things that are different here.

And it’s not just that we call a Big Mac Cheeseburger a “Royale with Cheese.”

We do our betting on horse racing differently here.

It’s a lot more social and, of course, does tend to involve a fair amount of beer or wine.

Now, I have to warn you that, if you’re looking for a sensible, structured and well-informed introduction to Horse Racing in France then you’ve probably come to the wrong place?

What I intend to attempt to do is to explain it as it really is.

Read More about Why a PMU Ain’t Your Average Bookies…


13/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As I mentioned yesterday…

I’m not too comfortable about rating the non-Group or non-Listed French races.

It’s a lot of work for me and I know that the ratings for the Group/Graded and Listed races are far more accurate.

Having said that, from the ratings for the four French races that I published yesterday, we got 1 top rated winner.

Arise (in the 12:50) won at 16.70 so, by blindly backing the top rated horse in all 4 of the rated races you would have have 16.70 points returned to the 4 points staked.

And I guess that a 317.50% profit on stakes isn’t too shabby.

And a 25% strike rate is sort of what you’d expect from a ratings agency.

I did get one email yesterday from a long standing Focus Ratings member…

Bonjour Keith,

Nice going so far on ze french I’ve had 2 losers 1 winner 9/5, 1 placer 80/1 and I winner 12/1 and one to go 9/1

Lovely thanks

Roy

So I guess that I might have to look at rating some of the non Group/Listed races after all.

There are 2 Group races and 2 Listed races at Longchamps tomorrow so I will rate those.

They start early; the first starts at 10:10 UK time so I’ll try to get the ratings out for those races by lunchtime today.

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14/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ll go into the detail of yesterday’s results for the Hong Kong and French ratings for yesterday lower down on this post.

The one thing that I should say is that I finally committed some code updates yesterday and, as a result…

We now have two more columns for our Hong Kong CompassRatings.

As you’ll see from the screenshot…

We now have a column that shows the Draw (very important for Happy Valley races) and another new column for the Confidence for each horse.

This applies to both the Top Three Rated PDF and the All Horses PDF.

2020-05-13--1589387311_1794x291_scrot

Click on the image to see it full size – don’t forget to use the Back button to return to this post.

I’m hoping to add Draw/Stall win percentage as a new column this weekend; this is only really useful for the Happy Valley racing but it could improve profitability.

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15/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday’s ratings didn’t do much for me.

I got a place but my heart wasn’t really into it.

The PMU have changed their rules and I can no longer place a Trio (a French Trifecta) for races with 4 to 7 runners.

I can still do the Trio for races with 8 or more runners and this pays for the top three horses in any order.

I need to do some slight adjustments to my strategy to take this into account but…

I’ve sort of got over that excitable rush to get some bets on (after such a dry period) and my self discipline seems to be coming back.

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16/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I didn’t have a bet yesterday as none of the races really fit the profile for races that I feel comfortable with.

I haven’t made my mind up about the 13:35 at Auteuil yet.

For those of you interested in French racing, there is an interesting article on the Racinf Post that explains some of the course.

The link to the article is… https://www.racingpost.com/news/french-racing/racecourse-guides-essential-insight-into-the-french-tracks-in-action/433553

Now, I’m just going to grab a shower and then I’ll be ready to watch the 7:25 at Morphettville (Aus) which I rated yesterday.

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17/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

The new Australian ratings did well yesterday with our second rating horse winning the race.

Please be aware…

There may well be a Sunday Smile post later on this morning – after I’ve had my breakfast, that is.

I will also be rating the 11:59 at Santa Anita (USA) Grade 3 sprint and will be sending the link to those ratings out in about an hour or so.

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17/05/2020 – Sunday Smile…

imagesHello again…

As I promised earlier…

I have compiled the ratings for the Group 3 race at Santa Anita (USA)

The link to today’s American ratings is… http://focusratings.com/american/AmericanRatings-2020-05-17.pdf

In the fututre I’ll try to compile these a day in advance so that you have more time to study them.

Read More about Sunday Smile…


18/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall, it was a reasonably happy day for the ratings yesterday.

I’ll go through what happened below…

Hong Kong Ratings

In a strangely quiet day for us at Sha Tin we got 2 winners form the 10 races.

I’ll be publishing the ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley tomorrow morning.

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19/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Today I am largely going to be working on a post to explain the effect of the draw at Happy Valley – hence the early start.

The first race of the day (on Wednesday) starts at 11:45 so I’ll try and get the post finished well before them.

Compass Ratings

The link to tomorrow’s ratings (top 3 rated) for the Wednesday meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-20.pdf

The link to tomorrow’s ratings (all horses) for the Wednesday meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-20.pdf

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20/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Compass Ratings

The link to today’s ratings (top 3 rated) for the Wednesday meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-20.pdf

The link to todays’s ratings (all horses) for the Wednesday meeting at Happy Valley is… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-20.pdf

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21/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I am sorry for the brevity of yesterday’s Morning News.

On Tuesday I had a blinder of a day, largely working on an exciting new project that I need to get finished before racing resumes in the UK.

As a result, (and because the weather was lovely) I decided to treat myself to a nice meal in the back yard and duly bought a dozen oysters, some whelks, a nice bottle of rosé wine and even made some mayonnaise.

I had a great evening but…

Yes, you guessed it…

At 1am I woke up with the knowledge that I had about 6.12 seconds to get to the toilet or there would be a bit of a mess.

And that reoccurred every 20 minutes or so, pretty much all day long.

I didn’t feel in the slightest bit ill but I was very glad that I’d just bought a new pack of toilet paper.

I never knew I was so full of sh*t!

Now, this might not be the ideal subject to talk about whilst you are having your cornflakes but I need to explain why I didn’t get any work done yesterday (although I did read a major chunk of World War Z – the book is far better than the film.)

Am feeling fine now and will try to catch up with emails and the Happy Valley draw bias today.

And I might steer clear of rosé wine for the next few weeks or so.

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22/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

There are going to be some changes starting next week…

I”ve got a lot of things that I need to put into place before GB and Irish racing come back.

From early next week, any French, American or Australian ratings will come out on 1 PDF file and will be called SpotLight Ratings.

This doesn’t really affect you as, if you are a member of FocusRatings.com, a member of EarlyBirdRatings.com or PlaceProfits.com – you will get SpotLightRatings (and CompassRatings) for free.

It just makes it easier for me to put the non Hong Kong foreign ratings all on one PDF.

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23/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

During these difficult times I imagine that many bars and restaurants are having a difficult time.

Some of the restaurants have opened for takeaways and some bars are selling coffee to take away (but no beer.)

My local PMU is still selling cigarettes and ice creams (and, of course, they are taking bets) but I bet most of its normal profits come from their bar and restaurant.

So, in order to support my PMU I go there every morning for a takeaway coffee. I sit down on the wall that overlooks the lake and just watch the world go by and the village coming to life.

lac-huelgoatpngClick on the image to see it full size.

So, not only am I supporting my PMU, it’s also a bit of fun for me.

In France we call it… un acte de solidarité.

I do have to admit that, over the last week, I have also been taking half an hour off and sneaking out in the afternoon to do the same thing but I get an ice cream instead of a coffee.

Yesterday I was sat having my morning coffee and my mate, Yannick, came over and sat a couple of meters from me.

Now, Yannick only bets on trotting races and really can’t understand why I burst out laughing when they are shown on the big TV in the PMU.

He feels that because there are no silly jumps to jump over and none of that silly cantering or galloping to get in the way of things…

Trotting races tend to run truer and, for him, are far more profitable.

He’s been suggesting for quite a while now (nagging is too harsh a word – he’s a mate, after all) to test my ratings on Trotting races.

Yesterday I gave in and have rated one race today at Laval; it’s included in today’s Spotlight Ratings PDF.

This is just a test so that I can analyse the results and I certainly won’t be betting on it. Weirdly enough, I shall be watching the replay after the race is run – I’ll try not to laugh too much.

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23/05/2020 – Spotlight Ratings

spotlight-ratingsGood afternoon…

I have compiled tomorrow’s Spotlight Ratings and we have one race in France and another in Japan.

I can’t say too much about Japanese racing but I will say that the prize money over there is huge.

It also seems interesting (to me, at least) that a lot of horses racing in Japan have a French provenance.

The link to tomorrow’s international Graded, Group and Listed ratings is here… http://spotlightratings.com/data/SpotlightRatings-2020-05-24.pdf

You’ve obviously already had the link to tomorrow’s Compass Ratings for the meeting at Sha Tin but I’m sending out these Spotlight ratings early as the Tokyo race starts very early.

As always…

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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24/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

This is going to be quick as I seem to have slightly overslept and have a full day ahead of me.

Compass Ratings

There are 11 races at Sha Tin today.

The link to the ratings for those races (top 3 rated) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-24.pdf

The link to the ratings for those races (all horses) is here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-24-full.pdf

Spotlight Ratings

Here are the links to today’s ratings… http://spotlightratings.com/data/SpotlightRatings-2020-05-24.pdf

Something to make you smile…

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25/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

This week, I’ll be getting things ready for the restart of GB racing next Monday.

As a result I shall be sending out the ratings on Sunday morning.

Obviously, if you click on the link for the ratings (in whichever format that you use) the PDF will be empty.

This is just a test to ensure that things go well for Monday.

I have made some changes to the script that produces the ratings (mainly tidying up the process and removing stuff that we no longer use) and I’d really feel happier having a test run on Sunday.

Compass Ratings

Another great day for us with the Hong Kong races.

1. Our second rated horse won @ 4.40

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26/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

My local bank re-opens today…

I can go in and pay all my bills…

I never thought that I’d be so happy to be able to go to the bank and pay my bills!

How things have changed since lockdown.

Yesterday I saw 2 mothers (and their kids) meet in in the market square.

It must have been school chucking out time.

They did the normal thing and everyone kissed everyone else on the cheeks.

Then they must have remembered that they weren’t allowed to do that,

And they all looked round in a guilty fashion (even the kids), as though they’d just done a drugs deal.

To see if anyone had spotted them.

How things have changed since lockdown.

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27/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

One of the things that I’ve just realised is that, because the Advance Ratings/Compass Ratings/Spotlight Ratings magic formula only looks at past form (and number of runners and prize money in a race), it makes it very easy for me to produce Ante Post ratings.

Now, I am going to take a look at the schedule for the bigger races (GB, Irish and International) but, if you were interested in Ante Post ratings for the bigger races, how soon (how many days/weeks) prior to the race would you want them?

Please let me know.

Also, if someone could explain to me (as though I was a 3 year old or, their favourite labradour – yes, I really am that thick) what the advantage is to Ante Post ratings, I would better be able to schedule and prioritise them.

If you think that you could explain the benefits of Ante Post ratings to a real thicky, once again…

Please let me know.

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28/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Things are progressing with getting things ready for the resumption of GB racing.

Although having no internet for most of Tuesday hasn’t helped there.

As it’s market day here today I probably won’t get much work done this morning but, hey ho…

That’s just life.

As I mentioned yesterday…

I am working on a strategy for producing Ante Post Ratings.

I’ve also got a new project which I hope to be launching in just over a week’s time.

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29/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Oh, Happy Days!

Oh, Happy days are here again.

From next Tuesday (the 2nd of June) our bars, cafes and restaurants will be allowed to open again.

There will be certain restrictions…

Cafes, bars and restaurants can reopen with restrictions from next week. Staff must wear masks and customers must also wear masks when moving around.

There must be a distance of a metre between tables and no more than 10 people can sit at any one table.

10835249_1564522840459776_1969351559241779228_oI can live with that!

That sort of means that, this time next week I can be sat on the terrace of my favourite bar…

Which also happens to be my betting shop…

Eating a Galette Andouille Breton (a sort of pig’s bottom pancake/crepe) and drinking a nice cool glass of wine without worrying about getting arrested!

Happy days are certainly here again.

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30/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

With no Spotlight Ratings selections yesterday…

There’s very little for me to talk about.

However, I did manage to do some analysis of our Sha Tin races (since I started publishing them.)

Now, because I’ve just had visibility of the 2 world class races at Tokyo tomorrow I need to concentrate on creating Spotlight Ratings for them.

So, the Sha Tin analysis will have to wait until Monday.

I’ll do the same thing for the Happy Valley races for next Wednesday.

Come to think about it, some of you will probably want the same data but with jockey and trainer names included. I’ll get that done for the top three rated horses once tomorrow’s Sha Tin results are in.

This is a bit of work for me (not that I’m complaining) in that I don’t record that data (Jockey and Trainer) on my database tables so…

I’ll have to manually add those details, race by race, for every race since I started doing the Compass Ratings.

I may just have to take my laptop to the terrace behind that PMU and sit there, in the shade, and do that work there.focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

With no Spotlight Ratings selections yesterday…

There’s very little for me to talk about.

However, I did manage to do some analysis of our Sha Tin races (since I started publishing them.)

Now, because I’ve just had visibility of the 2 world class races at Tokyo tomorrow I need to concentrate on creating Spotlight Ratings for them.

So, the Sha Tin analysis will have to wait until Monday.

I’ll do the same thing for the Happy Valley races for next Wednesday.

Come to think about it, some of you will probably want the same data but with jockey and trainer names included. I’ll get that done for the top three rated horses once tomorrow’s Sha Tin results are in.

This is a bit of work for me (not that I’m complaining) in that I don’t record that data (Jockey and Trainer) on my database tables so…

I’ll have to manually add those details, race by race, for every race since I started doing the Compass Ratings.

I may just have to take my laptop to the terrace behind that PMU and sit there, in the shade, and do that work there.

Eating an ice cream and drinking a nice cold beer.

It’s a hard life, isn’t it?

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31/05/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday was a busy day.

Not so much for me (although it was very busy for me) but…

More for my neighbours.

With the recent announcement that the local bars, cafes and restaurants could re-open on Tuesday…

They all spent most of yesterday morning putting up their summer terraces.

The normally quiet market square resounded to the sounds of power tools (and the occasional swear word.)

Unfortunately, at mid-day it got rather hot so they all stopped work, a few bottles of Muscadet came out and…

I guess that they’ll be finishing off today.

These are my two next door neighbours…

Two of the six bars/cafes/restaurants in the market square that decided to put up their terraces yesterday.

They are actually the reason that I have a belly the size of Belgium!

SDC10088Click on the photo to see it full size.

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03/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I was a good boy yesterday…

I really was!

I made sure that the ratings went out on time, I calculated the Investment Betting selections (as it happens, there weren’t any) and sent out the email.

I have to admit that I forgot to send out my PlaceProfits.com members an email to tell them that there were no selections but…

I used to have a really good morning routine; however, after 10 weeks of no GB (or IRE) racing, I seem to have forgotten that routine.

Still, I was a good boy yesterday; one of my members has a problem in that she’s not getting her system selections. I’ve not changed anything (during the no racing period) that could cause that problem so that’s a bit of a mystery to me.

I did some work on that.

Another member is getting his system selections (after about a year of not getting them) but, he’s getting details even though there aren’t any selections for his systems – that’s another problem for me.

I did some work on that.

Still, I was a good boy, yesterday.

I worked very hard until about 2pm.

I did some of the day to day stuff that I have to do (the Morning News, Spotlight Ratings, Compass Ratings and so forth) and I also put in quite a few hours on my new “Secret Squirrel Mystery Project X” that I hope to launch towards (in collaboration with a long term member of Focus Ratings) the end of next week.

I did all the BAU (Business as Usual) business that I have to do – like checking the backups, checking the log files and checking for security updates – the sort of stuff that anyone who runs a website has to do.

I even watered the plants!

So, all in all…

I was a good boy yesterday but…

Then it happened!

At about 2pm I heard this voice in the distance; it was whispering to me…

Those fateful words..

“It’s Beer O’Clock”

So, I had no choice other than to go out and visit my local betting shop (we call them PMUs over here in France) and treat myself to a nice cold beer enjoyed on the terrasse.

I did try very hard to resist that temptation but, temptation is always the one thing that I can never resist.

SDC10099

Click on the image to see it full size.

I don’t think that I can even begin to explain how good a feeling it was to have a nice cold beer whilst sat on the terrasse of my favourite bar (which also happens to be my local betting shop.)

Especially after 10 weeks of not being able to do just that.

I’d need to be a Hemingway to explain that.

I was a good boy though…

I did resist the temptation to have a double Ice Cream with my nice cold beer – but that might be today’s treat?

Perhaps, when my time comes, there might be a place in heaven for me, after all…

Just because I was a good boy yesterday.

SDC10111

Click on the image to see it full size.

And, lets face it – who wouldn’t be lucky with their betting when the view from their local betting shop looks like this?

By the way, I don’t normally read the Daily Mail – in fact I don’t normally read any UK newspaper but a friend emailed me this link which kind of shows how it is over here in Froglad. Daily Mail article about those mad mad froggies.


Focus Ratings

focusI suppose that yesterday wasn’t too bad for Focus Ratings – had you blindly backed every top rated horse in every race you would have made a 68% profit.

Here are yesterday’s results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format… Yesterday’s Traffic Light Results

Yesterday’s Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.77%.

Yesterday’s Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 30.77%.

Yesterday’s – Link to Follow – results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 35.71% from all 14 Races (including previously unrated races.)

The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 28.63 units returned to 37 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -22.62%

Top Rated Horse – There were 4 winners from the top rated horses from 13 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.88 units returned to 13 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, 68.31%

2nd Rated Horse – There were 2 winners from the second rated horses from 11 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.75 units returned to 11 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -38.64%

3rd Rated Horse – There were 0 winners from the third rated horses from 13 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 0 units returned to 13 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -100%

Non Handicap Races – Top Rated Horse – There were 3 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 66.67%

Top Rated Horse – If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 10.38 units returned to 3 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 246%

Non Handicap Races – Top Three Rated Horses – There were 3 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 66.67%


Compass Ratings

Compass-Ratings

The ratings for today’s racing (top 3 rated) at Happy Valley are here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-06-03.pdf

The ratings for today’s racing (all horses) at Happy Valley are here… http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-06-03.pdf

I am still going to be producing a results analysis spreadsheet.

Unfortunately, I am juggling an awful lot of balls at the moment and…

There are only 25 hours in the day and only 8 days in the working week.

I will try to work harder – I promise you.


Spotlight Ratings

spotlight-ratings

There is only one International Graded, Group or Listed race today – it is the 10:36 Belmont Park (USA)

The link to today’s Spotlight Ratings is here… http://spotlightratings.com/data/SpotlightRatings-2020-06-03.pdf

There’s also a Group 3 and a Listed race at Kempton.

They are listed on the Advance Ratings PDF (which uses the same formula as SpotlightRatings.

You can identify the Spotlight Ratings for those two races here… http://advanceratings.com/data/advanceratings-2020-06-03.pdf

Read More about Morning News


04/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A fairly well behaved day for me yesterday.

I did go to the bar once but that was at 8am to have a coffee and a gossip.

Now, I’m not really a gambler but occasionally I like to buy a scratch card.

I bought one and it must have been the right one as I won 50 euros for a 5 euro cost.

mot-croissesI just love it when the day starts well.

I don’t actually see this as gambling as the scratchcard that tends to be successful for me is a sort of crossword type thing.

Thus, I see it as more educational than gambling.

I spent most of the day doing some behind the scenes programming stuff to try to automate all the little jobs that I have to do every morning…

All of those little jobs that I used to do out of habit but, after 10 weeks with no racing, am now forgetting to do (or, even forgetting how to do them – can you believe that it took me 5 minutes yesterday morning to work out how I used to work out the Investment Betting selections.)

Today is market day in my village so…

I might be slightly distracted (in the morning, at least) but I have got lots of work lined up to do.

Read More about Morning News


05/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Another busy day for me yesterday…

I was busy working on the new Secret Squirrel Mystery Service X (in collaboration with a long term Focus Ratings member) that I am hoping to launch late next week.

I have also been working on AntePostRatings.com – the website isn’t finished yet but it’ll probably be all done by first thing Monday.

And, on top of that, emails are coming in faster than I can reply to them – I may just need to clone myself.

Luckily for me, it rained over here yesterday morning so…

I couldn’t sneak out for a cheeky beer on the terrace at the PMU and,

Obviously, I didn’t need to water my plants.

So…

More time for me to get down to work.

Now, I have to say that today’s ratings are going to come out a little bit later than normal.

I have started to install the new scripts to automate some of the things that I have to do every morning.

Please don’t worry, once I have worked out how long those scripts are going to take to run, I’ll just start the main script running a little bit earlier to compensate.

Those of you with very beady eyes will have noticed that a new option has popped up on the menu on the Focus Ratings website.

As I started doing (when GB racing closed down,) I shall start compiling details of Draw Bias (where applicable) and Focus Ratings historical Strike Rate/POI for different race types for each course. I may add in some Trainer stats as well.

I imagine that this will take me the best part of three months to complete (what with all the other things going on) but, once done, there will be a PDF for every race course in GB and IRE.

These will individually be updated once a year.

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06/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…It was a half day for me yesterday as it was my birthday.

Back to work with a vengeance today.

I’ve just looked at the early morning test ratings and it looks like a good day of racing for us in UK.

And with Irish racing coming back from Monday,

It seems that things are returning to normal…

Whatever normal was in the first place.

As well as today’s 3 meetings in the UK, we have 7 International races that I’ve managed to rate and…

Another 3 for tomorrow.

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07/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I was hoping to get a lot of work done today (even though Sunday is normally my day off) but…

I have been invited out to Sunday lunch by some good expat friends.

It’s a sort of birthday treat,

I hope that they haven’t baked a cake with candles…

That would be a lot of candles!

I’ll be having some bets on the French racing as a few of the races look like they have the right shape (as far as the ratings are concenred) for me to bet the race (rather than betting the horse.)

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08/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday was a pretty dire day pretty much all round.

However, I am quite happy to crow about the good days so…

I have to live with those days which are less good.

It all balances out in the end.

I imagine that, if I added up all the races from the last week (the first week of racing in months)…

The strike rate and POI would look pretty good.

Read More about Morning News


09/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall…

Not such a wonderful day but,

It does seem that the racing is settling down and getting back to normal.

It was nice to see Irish racing after all this time.

Looking forward…

The racing for the rest of the week seems to compare pretty well to the racing this time last year.

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10/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

A decent number of races today.

And some of the racing actually looks pretty decent.

The fields are bigger than I would expect but…

You can’t have everything.

I do have to admit that…

Yesterday I held my breath from about 7 am until the results for the only Place Profits selection came in at 6:15 pm.

I managed to do so (although I almost passed out a couple of times) but it was worth the effort as our selection came third…

And, thus, was a win for us.

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11/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall…

Not such a wonderful day but, I think that we have to bear in mind that this is only the second week of racing since the 10 week pause.

It must have been very hard for the trainers to try to anticipate when racing would resume.

Thus, not all horses are going to be perfectly race fit.

I’m sure that things will settle down soon.

Read More about Morning News


12/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday was a bit difficult for me as the internet in the village was on and off all day long.

So, although I started the day with good intentions…

I actually got very little done.

I’m hoping that today is better.

That does mean that my schedule is falling further and further behind but,

I’m not letting it get to me – the new work will be done when it’s done.

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13/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday’s results would suggest that things are starting to settle down a bit.

Having said that, it is only two weeks since racing restarted.

It sort of feels a bit like traditional April racing but…

Without the National Hunt races.

Which, technically…

Is what it is.

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14/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ve been putting in some pretty long hours recently and…

Today it seems to have caught up with me as I seem to have slightly slept thorough my alarm clock.

It used to go off at 5am (4am UK time) but, in order to get more done…

I set it to 3am (2am UK time – yes, it does exist) about a week ago.

Today, it may have gone off but I have no recall.

Thus, I am running a bit behind today.

The ratings go out automatically (and, indeed, have already gone out) but the Spotlight Ratings are going to have to wait until about 9am.

The links for them are posted below but, they won’t work until about that time.

I do apologise for this, today (being Sunday) is going to be a sort of day off for me – sleeping through the alarm suggest that I need a day off.

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16/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A bit of a bumpy day for me yesterday…

As one of the overnight scripts that run on my server,

Failed to run.

As a result, I had some catching up to do in the morning.

Still, all appears to be working well now and the 2am early morning test ratings look fine.

Obviously, it’s the start of Royal Ascot today and I rather suspect that you will all be concentrating on that.

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17/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Plenty of work got done yesterday and…

Nothing went wrong.

I really need more days like that.

At some point this week I need to move some of my IT around,

This will mean that I’ll be offline for most of that day.

I’ll let you know in advance when that will be.

Read More about Morning News


18/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I get the feeling that we are having some sort of compensation following the re-start of racing two weeks ago.

If all the good horses ran during the first week or so…

Perhaps (Ascot apart), the remaining horses will be more variable in terms of performance.

As a test, I checked out the performance of the top rated horse for the Racing Post Ratings.

Now, although I’m not a fan of these ratings…

They are often a good test for lower priced horses (they aren’t so good at selecting higher priced horses.)

Yesterday, the performance didn’t have the consistency that I would normally expect.

This suggests (to my warped mind, at least) that the racing this week (once again, Ascot aside) is lower quality that it was two weeks ago.

Read More about Morning News


19/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ve decided that today is the day…

When I start moving my IT about.

I’ve realised that most of my work (mainly programming) gets done on my second most powerful computer,

Whereas, my most powerful computer does very little at all.

So, not only will I be physically swapping them over,

I will need to re-image my most powerful computer (it is currently running Windows 10 – I normally use Linux.)

Thus, today (and possibly tomorrow) there will be times when I won’t have access to email or Skype.

It’s also likely that there won’t be a Morning News tomorrow.

However, I do need to get this done as it will increase my productivity.

Read More about Morning News


20/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As I mentioned yesterday…

I am moving my IT around.

So far, nothing has gone right but I think that I have resolved all potential issues.

This does mean that I will be without email or Skype for much of today.

However,

The end result should be worth all the hassle.

Read More about Morning News


23/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

I have to say that, the last few days have been a bit difficult, to say the least.

What should have been a simple IT upgrade didn’t quite go as planned.

I do, however, now have email and access to everything that I need (apart from Skype)…

Just not quite on the right machines.

I’ll be spending most of today trying to catch up on yesterday’s emails and…

Vowing never to try to upgrade my IT again.

Read More about Morning News


24/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well….

Things seem to be getting back to normal at Chateau Focus Ratings.

I just need to configure a new email client and then I should be good to go.

I have to say that it’s blisteringly hot over here with today set to see temperatures of 30 degrees.

So I may just get tempted to finish early today and go and have a paddle.

Read More about Morning News


25/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

With 32 degrees predicted for today…

I’m not too sure how much work I’ll get done.

However, I will do my best.

I shall be moving around some of the overnight scripts as there are some overlaps.

This shouldn’t affect you but the various ratings may come out slightly earlier or later that they have recently been coming out.

Read More about Morning News


26/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

Yesterday was a bit of a difficult day for me.

Firstly, the Advance Ratings didn’t come out and then my router/firewall decided to call it a day.

I think that I have resolved the issue with the Advance Ratings…

As my firewall is home made, I had no choice but to rebuild it but…

If you’re reading this then I guess that the rebuild worked.

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27/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ve just realised how much of an expat Brit I have become.

It rained a lot during the winter;

I complained about the rain.

It’s been very hot recently;

I’ve been complaining about the heat

I guess you can take the boy out of Britain but…

You can’t take Britain out of the boy. height=”552″

Now, where’s my Marmite on toast?

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28/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As it’s Sunday…

I’m taking the day off.

It’s forecast to be a nice dry 20 degrees today and so,

I guess that I’ll be largely gardening.

Come to think of it…

I’m not sure if that constitutes a day off?

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29/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men….

Yesterday was supposed to be a gardening day.

I did get as far as watering my plants and deadheading my petunias but, alas, that’s about as far as I got.

I guess that I’ll be scrubbing the patio and cleaning the BBQ this afternoon.

Anyway, enough of that, let’s get on to the important stuff…

The racing.

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30/06/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As it’s raining…

I guess that I’m stuck indoors today.

However, being a positive, the glass is half full rather than half empty type of person…

At least I wont have to water my plants.

Actually, I have a whole load of admin work that I’ve been putting off so,

Perhaps being stuck indoors isn’t such a bad thing.

Read More about Morning News


01/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday was an admin day for me and…

I seem to be catching up with the backlog of work.

I freely admit that, during the period where we had no GB or Irish racing, I did bite off a bit more than I can chew but…

I’m getting there; albeit slower than I would like.

I have three remaining projects left to complete – a few weeks of rain might help me get it done.

I have (rather later than anticipated) produced the Ante Post Ratings for 4 of the races at Epsom this Saturday – the link is down below.

Read More about Morning News


02/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday was a day where…

Actually, more work got done – and thus, more boxes on the to do list got ticked off than…

Work came in.

At this rate I will have caught up sometime in 2035.

Seriously, some of the projects that I’m working on should start becoming visible to you in the not too distant future.

Read More about Morning News


03/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

In terms of actually getting work done…

Yesterday was pretty good for me.

Today I will adding some new code which means that tomorrow,

The ratings might be coming out a bit later than normal.

If that is the case then, I can edit script to take that into account.

Read More about Morning News


04/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I imagine that most people will be thinking about Epsom today.

And quite rightly so.

The early morning test ratings show…

Kameko as the top rated with,

English King strongly second rated.

It’ll be interesting to see how the ratings compare to what the tipsters are saying.

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05/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall, yesterday seemed a pretty good day for us.

I’m still going through the results but what I’ve seen so far looks pretty good.

As a heads up…

At some point next week (possibly tomorrow or Tuesday) Advance Ratings will be coming out a few hours earlier.

Ultimately, this will mean that the Focus Ratings email will be coming out a bit earlier as well.

This is to remove some of the congestion problems I have about 8am (French time.)

Today is sort of a day off for me but…

I should be back, firing on all cylinders, tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News


06/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday was a bit disappointing all round but…

I’m still not convinced that racing has really returned to normal after the 10 week break.

Or, perhaps it was just a bad day…

We get them from time to time.

Let’s hope that today is better for us.

After a good day off I am now back at work with a vengeance – I’m hoping to announce some new developments in the near future.

Read More about Morning News


07/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall…

A pretty good day across the board yesterday.

And a good day for me in terms of catching up with all my work commitments.

The ratings (and all the other emails) are now coming out a fair bit earlier and…

That really helps me in terms of reducing the congestion that I used to have at about 7am.

Read More about Morning News


08/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday was pretty good all round, again.

And today looks fairly decent as far as the ratings are concerned.

The return of jumps racing is making a difference to our general results, in my opinion.

I have made an early start today as…

It looks like it’s going to get rather hot and I may just have to go out and enjoy the good weather this afternoon.

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09/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

An excellent day for the EarlyBird ratings and…

Especially, the Diamonds and Gold selections

5 winners from the 6 selections (taking the non-runner into account),

Is pretty impressive but,

As I mentioned yesterday afternoon…

There were some incredible prices to be had.

I suppose that that’s the basic principle of the EarlyBird Ratings.

Ratings the evening before the day of the races to allow you to get onto the big prices.

2020-07-08--1594226401_1347x832_scrot

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10/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Whoops…

I seem to have slightly overslept today and, thus, everything will be a little later than normal.

I do apologise…

I guess that all the early starts have started to catch up with me.

Overall, it looks like yesterday was a pretty decent day all round.

A nice 7/1 winner for the Investment Betting selections and…

A nearly 42% strike rate for our top rated horse for Focus Ratings

Sort of put a smile on my face.

Once I’ve had an urgent caffeine infusion I’ll get on and get out today’s selections for the various services.

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11/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall…

Yesterday was a reasonably decent day for us,

Across all the services.

I will be spending most of the weekend on a long term project that I really need to get finished.

Thus, I may be a little slow in answering emails.

I apologise in advance for this.

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12/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Interestingly enough…

The most exciting race of the day is…

The 15:25 at Deauville.

Pinatubo is by far the top rated horse.

And the top three rated are way ahead of the rest of the field.

I feel a visit to the PMU in my immediate future.

Even though I’ve got an obscene amount of work on at the moment..

The weather looks to be very good today and so…

I’ll probably be spending the afternoon in the garden with a nice cold beer and a good book to read.

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14/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

After yesterday’s problems,

Today the ratings seem to have gone out correctly.

So, that means that I can actually get some work done today,

Rather than playing catch up all day.

I’d like to thank you all for your supportive emails yesterday morning.

Especially the one from Bob W who sent me this to cheer me up…

A White horse walks in to a bar.

The barman says “We have got a whisky named after you.”

The horse says…

“What, Eric?”

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15/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

I received a few emails yesterday,

Telling me off,

And quite rightly so!

It seems that, in my haste yesterday morning…

I forgot to mention the 33/1 winner that we had on Monday.

Some members even sent in images of their betting slips to prove the point.

IMG_2128

So, I do apologise for not mentioning the 33/1 top rated winner that we had on Monday.

I’ll need to do some work on this but…

There may be a possible strategy for backing top rated horses where the bookies/Betfair…

Are offering significantly higher odds than the Forecast SP that I have published.

Just looking back over a few randomly selected Ratings PDFs,

winnerThis seems to work.

Click on the image to see it full size.

Especially for each way bets.

If any of you use this strategy…

Or, something similar,

And are willing to share…

Please let me know.

I’ve got a massive workload now but,

I’ll try to find time to do some testing on historical data.

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16/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult for me…

After the debacle of moving my IT around and,

Getting the ratings out earlier,

I am sort of getting into a better structure for doing my BAU (Business As Usual) work.

As a result…

Whilst the normal ratings are now coming out earlier,

It looks like the Morning News email may start coming out a bit later.

From tomorrow you should receive the Morning News email between 8am and 9am.

I hope that this doesn’t disappoint too many of you.

I have a number of projects going on and…

The additional work that I took on during the period where there was no racing has massively increased my workload now that racing is back.

As an aside,

There is a new law in France (currently about to be implemented) which means that we all have to wear masks in any enclosed public place.

My village supermarket has put up a sign on their door stating that they won’t allow anyone to enter unless they are wearing a mask.

I’m not sure if it is the same in the UK (or Ireland) but, to my mind, it seems the right thing to do.

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17/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

I am finally reaching the end of my to-do list and am starting to see the results.

One large push this weekend and I’ll be able to start publishing the results.

Then everything can return to normal although…

After the last four months,

I’m not even sure I remember what normal is.

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18/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

The tourists have arrived in my little bit of back of beyond Brittany.

However, and this might be a coincidence…

Brittany’s R number rises from 0.92 to 2.62 in just five days as the summer holidays begin.

For the full story… https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-cases-soar-in-frances-brittany-region-as-summer-holidays-begin-12030616

I live in Finisterre (which literally means “End of the World” – a very apt name) and we are one of two departments (counties) where the new face mask law is being brought forward.

It’s going to be an interesting summer, me thinks.

It is certainly going to be a very hot weekend, that’s for sure.

I’m going flat out to get all my work finished so that I can spend some time in the garden.

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19/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday I managed to work until lunchtime before…

Temptation struck,

And I gave in to the irrisstable urge to spend the afternoon in the garden

I did take a notebook and a tablet with me but…

If I said that I used them to carry on working in the sunshine,

I’d actually be lying.

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20/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Another day when temptation struck…

And, I didn’t get quite as much work done as I wanted to.

Following on from an email that I received from a Focus Ratings member…

I’d like to hear from you if there would be any interest in nightly updated Trainer/Course Win/Place strike rates.

If you have any ideas or feelings about that…

Please let me know.

Read More about Morning News


21/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I like to thank all of you who suggested ideas for a daily updated Trainer/Course Win and Place Strike Rate number.

It will be added to a bunch of new tools that I am working on.

I took a good few steps forward with the backlog of work yesterday and…

The new early start seems to be working well for me.

So, things are looking up.

Now I only need to invent a 25 hour day and an 8 day week and I’ll have caught up.

Read More about Morning News


22/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Overall…

It wasn’t such a great day yesterday.

But,

For me I hit a milestone in my backlog of work,

And thus…

Am starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

As long as I can resist the temptation to go and sit in the garden.

I should be able to complete an important new module today.

Read More about Morning News


23/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A great day for me, yesterday…

As I finally got a key module that I’ve been working on for what seems like forever…

Finally finished.

I still got more work to do but it should be all downhill from here onward.

As long as…

I can resist the temptation of sitting in the garden with a cold beer.

Read More about Morning News


24/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

All going well…

I should get the Trainer Course Win and Place Strike Rate finished today.

Which means that I’ll get to have the weekend off.

The early starts seem to be helping me to get the outstanding work done…

And, as a result,

You get the ratings and the various selections earlier.

Read More about Morning News


25/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I am planning to take this weekend off.

It’s been a long hard few weeks recently and…

It’ll be nice to get away from the computers a bit.

But I guess that that means that I’ll have to catch up on all those odd jobs that I’ve been putting off.

No rest for the wicked.

I will be checking email occasionally and…

Ensuring that the ratings go out correctly.

Read More about Morning News


26/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

As my friend (and FR member) Lee said yesterday…

Sod and Murphy applied their laws.

I had decided to have a weekend off and, of course, after a week of brilliant weather,

It rained all day yesterday.

I suppose that being a positive (glass half full) type of person…

At least I didn’t have to water my plants.

IMG_7581The weather is looking good at the moment so I hope to be able to get out and go for a long walk.

Even though I am a positive person…

I do have a slight worry that we are about to go into lock down again.

The French government are preparing for this so,

I’m going to relish my freedom whilst I can.

Moving on…

I got an email from one Early Bird Ratings member yesterday.

IMG_7580He did an 80 centime Canadian on 5 top rated horses.

As you can see…

He also did a 2.50 euro each way accumulator

I really love it when my members win big.

1,300 euros returned for a 5 euro bet…

Is a pretty good return.

To be honest…

I’ve never thought of each way accumulators but,

They do seem to be a pretty good way to bet.

It does seem strange that the Early Bird ratings are prone to giving good results for exotic bets.

There could be some actual reason for this or…

It could just be that Early Bird members are more interested in these types of bets.

Read More about Morning News


27/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I do apologise for today’s Morning News being slightly late.

I did get up early but…

When I checked my server logs (something that I do every morning)…

I found that an update that I installed yesterday had gone horribly wrong.

Thus it’s been flat out for me since about 4am.

Read More about Morning News


28/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A great start to the day…

As I seem to have got about a third of my planned work done already and,

It’s only 7am.

Let’s hope that the rest of the day goes as well.

Now, that’s jinxed things, hasn’t it?

Anyway,

The sun is shining over here in sunny Brittany.

And it looks like being a great day, all round.

Read More about Morning News


29/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

For me…

Yesterday was a highly productive day,

Where more things went right than…

Went pear shaped.

And it’s been quite a while since I’ve been able to say that.

Hopefully it’s onward and upward from now on.

Read More about Morning News


30/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Just a heads up…

Later on this morning,

I will be sending out an email launching a new service.

Intelligent Betting is the result of a long term collaboration between Roy (a Focus Ratings member) and me.

It is a free site (although there is a paid option) and shares some of the features that you see on the Focus Ratings PDFs but…

Without sharing the ratings.

Anyway, I just wanted to let you know in case you receive the mail out email.

Read More about Morning News


31/07/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Just to let you know…

Later on this morning,

I will be sending out an email explaining how to create your own ratings.

Intelligent Betting is the result of a long term collaboration between Roy (a Focus Ratings member) and me.

Now, I don’t expect you to cancel your subscription to Focus Ratings and use the Really Simple Ratings as…

Focus Ratings are far more accurate.

But I thought that it would be nice to share the way that I think about horse racing and horse racing ratings in particular.

Anyway, I just wanted to let you know in case you receive the mail out email.

Read More about Morning News


01/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Another busy, busy day for me, yesterday.

I managed to add another feature to Intelligent Betting.

The first meeting of the day (in alphabetical order) is free to logged in Free members.

It might just be worth glancing your eye at… Trainer Win/Place Strike Rate

At Chepstow today it would very much seem that William Haggas is a course specialist.

Read More about Morning News


03/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I do apologise for the slight lack of a Morning News yesterday.

Every Thursday there is a morning market in my village.

On the last Thursday of July, once the market is over, the fair moves in.

The fair sets up in the market square; I live in the market square.

The fair is very noisy,

The fair closes down at about 2am.

Because of my current workload, my alarm goes off at 3am.

Thus, I am not getting a lot of sleep.

Yesterday it all caught up with me and, once the ratings and selections went out, I had to go back to bed.

victormeldrewToday is the last day of the fair and it closes at midnight but…

Then the lorries turn up and they spend all night dismantling everything – that’s very noisy.

I don’t mind people enjoying themselves,

I just wish that they would do it quietly.

Oh dear, have I become Victor Meldrew?

Read More about Morning News


04/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

The fair…

In the market square (where I live) actually shut down quite early yesterday.

By 10pm all was quite and so, I went to bed.

Only to be woken up at midnight when the lorries turned up to dismantle the rides and take them away.

It was bedlam until 5am.

However, that’s it for another year.

On another point…

The Trainer Course Stats that I mentioned a few days ago will be making their way to Focus Ratings; albeit in a possibly different format.

Read More about Morning News


05/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Now that things have returned to normal in my little village…

I can fully get back to work.

I shall start by working on the Trainer information; similar to what I publish at Intelligent Betting.

But, as it will be you guys who may (or may not) use the information…

I really need to know how you will use it and what information you want.

Now, I imagine that you only want the information for those trainers who have horses running today.

I imagine that you may also want both overall strike rate and course specific strike rate.

Would you also want to see how that Trainer’s over strike rate has varied over time (to see which trainers are hot?)

Is there anything so obviously obvious that I have not even considered?

I’d be interested to know your thoughts.

Read More about Morning News


06/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Today I shall be continuing my work on…

Trainer Win Place Strike Rate.

Thank you for your responses and your advice…

I’ll be trying to put it as much of it as possible.

Although I do have to admit,

Putting in the graphs to show if a Trainer is getting better,

Or otherwise,

May be less easy that I’d hoped.

Read More about Morning News


07/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

I doubt that I’ll get too much work done today.

The weather is forecast to hit 37 degrees today and,

On top of that, my computers put out a fair amount of heat.

Still, I’ll get done what I can get done and…

Then go to the coolest part of the village.

What, strangely enough, is the terrace behind the PMU.

What a coincidence.

Read More about Morning News


08/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’m not going to be one of those people who constantly complains about the weather but…

Boy, was it hot yesterday!

Weirdly enough, the local newspaper announced that we were escaping the worst of the heatwave so,

Goodness only know what it must be like down south.

We’re a bit sensitive about the heat as, in 2003 (the first full year that I spent in France), we had a heatwave that lasted about 6 weeks.

During that time about 55,000 old people died as a result of the heat.

Apparently, some old people don’t like drinking a lot of water as they are worried that they will wet the bed and, get told off for doing so.

Consequently (and it was certainly the case in 2003 – the year of Le Canicule) lots of them died.

We’re still a bit sensitive on that issue.

I still remember the Government Health Minister (it would have been Chirac’s second term as President, I guess) being interviewed on TV and saying something like…

“They’re not just old people, they’re our parents, our grandparents…

Our families.”

Read More about Morning News


10/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

A good day off, yesterday…

Has left me raring to go.

I shall be doing some work on automating some of those little processes that take up my time every day.

As a result, this Morning News email will change in format slightly and…

If possible, be more forward looking rather than just reporting on yesterday’s results.

Read More about Morning News


11/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Today….

I will be starting on the Ante Post ratings for the Arc.

There are 80 horses currently declared so,

It may take some time.

From tomorrow…

If you are a Focus Ratings, Place Profits or Early Bird Ratings member,

You will need to be a Free member of AntePostRatings.com in order to view the Ante Post ratings.

I’ll explain the process tomorrow.

Read More about Morning News


13/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Yesterday, for me, is best summed up as…

Get up early to get a head start on the day,

No stable internet until just after lunchtime.

After lunch…

Go out to water plants,

10 minutes later…

Summer rainstorm (it didn’t rain cats and dogs – it was more like elephants and giraffes.)

I wonder what today will bring?

Read More about Morning News


14/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I think…

That I might be a tad distracted today.

The fast food van has come to my little village.

Well, actually…

It’s not really fast food,

The oven takes 5 hours to warm up.

And the food takes about 8 hours to cook!

So…

Not really fast food after all.

It’s very hard trying to work with the smell of slowly roast pig coming through my window.

I’ll do my best but I may find myself popping out to have a quick salivate and…

Have a chat with all the other men in the village who are doing the same.

SDC10164

Click on the image to see it full size.

Read More about Morning News


15/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

As I suspected…

Not a lot of work got done yesterday.

The constant smell of the slow roasted pig was a temptation and…

I don’t know what it is about barbeques (or pigs getting roast on a spit) and men but,

We seem to have an undeniable urge to grab a beer and congregate and talk bullshit all day.

And, to make things worse…

Today is a bank holiday and there is a little know French law which dictates that all men must…

Grab a beer and congregate in the market square and talk bullshit all day.

I have to admit that I might slightly have lied about that little know French law.

So I’m guessing that not a lot of work will get done today.

Tant Pis as we say in France.

Read More about Morning News


17/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

I didn’t seem to get as much done last week that I had hoped for.

So, I’ll need to catch up this week.

Today I’ll be installing some of the automation stuff that I wrote last week.

This means that, from tomorrow, the Morning News will look a bit different and…

I’ll have more time to get on with the important things.

Read More about Morning News


18/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well…

The overnight script that I wrote to generate the new format Morning News didn’t…

Overnight or,

Generate anything.

Back to the drawing board for me, I guess.

Still, it looks like it’s going to rain which means…

I won’t have to water my plants.

There’s really something rather disturbing about,

Waiting all year for the summer and then praying for rain.

I’m sure that there’s medication for people like me.

Read More about Morning News


19/08/2020 – Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I suppose…

That all eyes will be on York today.

I’m not going to make any predictions but will just let the ratings speak for themselves.

I should mention that Advance Ratings (and those those Focus Ratings that are combined with Advance Ratings – R5, R6 and R6+) are more accurate the higher the class of racing.

All races at York today are Class 1 and Class 2.

Just saying.

Read More about Morning News


24/08/2020 – Morning News

6620418Good morning…

Firstly…

I’d like to apologise for the slight lack of a Morning News post for the last few days.

I’ve been suffering from some medical issues for the last 3 weeks and,

As a result,

Haven’t been sleeping very well.

I was down to 2 hours a night and it all sort of caught up with me.

I’ve had a technician come out twice to check my CPAP machine (he replaced it with a new one on the last visit) but it was fine so…

I have had to give in and get some medication.

It seems to have worked as, last night, I slept for a whole 4 hours and, as a result, feel so bright and breezy that I think that I could swim the channel, run a marathon and climb Everest…

All in the same day.

I really don’t like taking medication but it seems to have worked.

Read More about Morning News


25/08/2020 – Morning News – 25/08/2020

6620418Good morning…

I have finally…

Finished the Ante Post ratings for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (4th October 2020.)

Today I will be concentrating on the St. Ledger Stakes (Doncaster 12/09/2020.)

The Ante Post Ratings for these races are available at AntePostRatings.com

If you are a Focus Ratings, Place Profits or Early Bird Ratings member you may subscribe to that site for free; just send me an email and I’ll set you up.

Read More about Morning News – 25/08/2020


26/08/2020 – Morning News – 26/08/2020

6620418Good morning…

Well…

I seem to have opened a can of worms yesterday when I mentioned Ante Post Ratings.

I have done the Ante Post ratings for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (4th October 2020) and the St. Ledger Stakes (Doncaster 12/09/2020.)

Today I will be concentrating on the Irish Champion Stakes (Leopardstwon 12 September 2020.)

The Ante Post Ratings for these races are available at AntePostRatings.com

If you are a Focus Ratings, Place Profits or Early Bird Ratings member you may subscribe to that site for free; just send me an email and I’ll set you up.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

If you have already requested access to Ante Post Ratings, you are in a massive backlog of requests – I’ll get to you at some point.

I intend to rate all of those races listed on The Racing Post Big Race Entries page and then refine those ratings for each of those races 2 week and then 1 week prior to the race. I’ve noticed that some of the horses scheduled to race in the Arc are also running in the St. Leger so I’ll need to do new ratings for the Arc 2 weeks and 1 week prior to that race. I’ll be reporting on results from the 1 week ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 26/08/2020


27/08/2020 – Morning News

6620418Good morning…

Just a quick heads up…

The ratings will be coming out slightly later than normal today.

There was a small issue on the server last night and I have had to re-run the overnight scripts.

Yesterday was very busy for me; I spent most of the day updating some of the result files (notably those for Place Profits.)

I will now concentrate on catching up on the email backlog.

Today I will be finishing the ratings for the Irish Champion Stakes (Leopardstwon 12 September 2020.)

The Ante Post Ratings for these races are available at AntePostRatings.com

If you are a Focus Ratings, Place Profits or Early Bird Ratings member you may subscribe to that site for free; just send me an email and I’ll set you up.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

If you have already requested access to Ante Post Ratings, you are in a massive backlog of requests – I’ll get to you at some point.

I intend to rate all of those races listed on The Racing Post Big Race Entries page and then refine those ratings for each of those races 2 week and then 1 week prior to the race. I’ve noticed that some of the horses scheduled to race in the Arc are also running in the St. Leger so I’ll need to do new ratings for the Arc 2 weeks and 1 week prior to that race. I’ll be reporting on results from the 1 week ratings.

Read More about Morning News


28/08/2020 – Morning NEws – 28/08/2020

6620418Good morning…

Whilst I still need to catch up on emails…

I did manage to get the Ante Post ratings for the Irish Champion Stakes (Leopardstwon 12 September 2020) finished.

I am also half way through the Ante Post ratings for the Irish St. Leger.

The Ante Post Ratings for these races are available at AntePostRatings.com

If you are a Focus Ratings, Place Profits or Early Bird Ratings member you may subscribe to that site for free; just send me an email and I’ll set you up.

Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.

If you have already requested access to Ante Post Ratings, you are in a massive backlog of requests – I’ll get to you at some point.

I intend to rate all of those races listed on The Racing Post Big Race Entries page and then refine those ratings for each of those races 2 week and then 1 week prior to the race. I’ve noticed that some of the horses scheduled to race in the Arc are also running in the St. Leger so I’ll need to do new ratings for the Arc 2 weeks and 1 week prior to that race. I’ll be reporting on results from the 1 week ratings.

Read More about Morning NEws – 28/08/2020


31/08/2020 – Morning News

6620418Good morning…

After a weekend off…

I’ve realised that I need to go and see the doctor again.

The medication that he prescribed isn’t really helping and it’s making me a bit of a zombie during the day time.

And that’s slowing me down getting things done.

So, I’m a bit behind on some of my work and I’ve still got a mountain of emails to catch up on.

But I’ll get there.

Read More about Morning News


01/09/2020 – Morning News

6620418Good morning…

After a 3 hour wait to see the doctor…

Which was a total waste of time,

I decided to go out for a meal yesterday evening,

And had a decent night’ sleep last night.

Perhaps that’s the secret?

I should be able to catch up with my work backlog today.

Read More about Morning News


02/09/2020 – Morning News

6620418Good morning…

A good night’s sleep last night…

Means that I’m raring to go.

I don’t really get it;

4 weeks of next to no sleep,

Go to the doctor,

Get prescribed medication,

Things get worse,

Go to the doctor again, have argument with him,

Stop taking medication and…

I’m sleeping like a champion.

I’m sure that there’s some login in there somewhere?

Read More about Morning News


03/09/2020 – Morning News – 03/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Now that I’m finally getting some sleep…

I’ve realised that I’ve got 4 weeks of housework to catch up on.

Still, it could be worse.

I think that I’ve finally fixed the problem which has meant that some of you weren’t getting Advance Ratings.

As I write this (4:18am) the ratings have just been published so it seems to have worked.

If any of you Focus Ratings or Advance Ratings members don’t get your Advance Ratings by 5am (or whenever you get up) let me know and I’ll investigate.

Read More about Morning News – 03/09/2020


05/09/2020 – Morning News – 05/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Even though I’m sleeping better…

I have decided to take the weekend off so that I can fully recuperate.

So,

A trip to the beach seems to be in order.

I’ve compiled the ratings for the 10 race meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday,

For any of you who are still interested in Hong Kong racing.

Read More about Morning News – 05/09/2020


07/09/2020 – Morning News – 07/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

After a weekend off…

I’m all fired up and ready to rock and roll.

Yesterday saw the return to Hong Kong racing.

Compass Racing didn’t do so well but…

I kind of expected a difficult start to the season,

A bit like what we saw here in Ju height=”400″ne when we restarted racing after a 10 week layoff.

I expect better things to come.

I’ll be compiling the ratings for Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley today.

Read More about Morning News – 07/09/2020


08/09/2020 – Morning News – 08/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

I do apologise for the lateness of today’s ratings.

For some reason, the initial ratings only showed 1 meeting.

I fixed the problem but it did take some time.

Sometimes not being able to sleep…

And, thus, getting up early,

Does have its benefits.

Read More about Morning News – 08/09/2020


09/09/2020 – Morning News – 09/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

I guess that everyone is excited about the start of the St. Leger meeting today.

I have to hospital today (nothing serious, just a routine checkup) so I’ll be out most of the day.

I don’t drive at the moment as I tend to fall asleep randomly which isn’t always the best thing if you are behind the wheel of a car…

So I’ll have to rely on public transport.

We have actually invented the bus in my part of back of beyond Brittany.

They’re just few and far between.

Read More about Morning News – 09/09/2020


10/09/2020 – Morning News – 10/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday’s news from Doncaster…

Has got to have us all wondering about what else may happen to our racing.

Still, we can only wait and see.

On a more positive note…

I’ve just checked Racing-index.com

EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections are now the top rated service over the last 12 months.

They’re also the top rated service over the last month, the last 3 months and the last six months as well.

Which, bearing in mind the difficulties that we’ve faced with horse racing this year,

Is pretty good going.

Read More about Morning News – 10/09/2020


11/09/2020 – Morning News – 11/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

As I watched the results coming in yesterday…

I noticed that we were getting quite a few top three rated winners at high prices.

We had two 6/1 top rated winners but,

Also, 6 top three rated winners of 5/1 or more.

Thus, I have started looking into ways of identifying the circumstances which generate those high priced winners.

The only thing that stands out so far is that the majority of those races where a top three rated horse wins at a high price is that RC0 (my quality of ratings metric) = 3.0

That mean that those are races where I can rate at least 88% of all runners.

That sort of makes sense to me but I do know that I have a lot more work to do.

Read More about Morning News – 11/09/2020


12/09/2020 – Morning News – 12/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

I was hoping to have the weekend off but…

I’ve realised that I’ve got a serious email problem.

I believe that most people access their email online but I download the mails to a desktop PC email client.

I’ve lost an entire email account from this client and some of my emails from other accounts are going straight to spam; even though the spam filters are all empty.

Now, obviously…

I can restore the email database from a daily backup but,

The email database contains every email since I started using Thunderbird (my email client) in 2007.

Thus it is 12.6 GB in size.

Apparently you should never let the database go over 4GB as, unless you do that, you may suffer corruptions.

So I’m going to have to try to archive my existing email database and start again with a new empty one.

This should work (I’ll still be able to access outstanding emails from the current database) but I have no idea how long it is going to take to do.

Fun, fun, fun.

Read More about Morning News – 12/09/2020


14/09/2020 – Morning News – 14/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

After a nice weekend off…

With some time spent on trying to sort out my email problem,

It’s back to work for me.

Over the next few days I will be moving my email accounts, one by one, to another machine.

And then…

I have a busy schedule of work to catch up on.

But, hopefully, I will make some real progress this week.

Read More about Morning News – 14/09/2020


15/09/2020 – Morning News – 15/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

I want to share…

One of the things that came up yesterday when I was doing some work on background statistics.

For Focus Ratings R6 ratings, Dundalk is blindly profitable out of the box for non-handicap races.

However…

If you restrict yourself to races with 5, 6,7 or 17 runners,

You get,

A Strike Rate of 47.01% and

A Profit on Investment (to ISP) of 63.21%

You’ll get about 1 race a week.

Just thought I’d share.

Read More about Morning News – 15/09/2020


16/09/2020 – Morning News – 16/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Well, it’s forecast to be very hot over here for the next few days.

So, I’m going to make the most of it…

And go out for a long walk this afternoon.

There’s a cafe/bar/bookshop on the other side of the forest, about 4 miles away so,

That looks like a good destination.

I have a horrible feeling that the cafes and bars are likely to be closed down again so I want to take advantage whilst I can.

Read More about Morning News – 16/09/2020


17/09/2020 – Morning News – 17/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

We are on strike over here in France today.

I’m not sure what we are striking about…

It’s something to do with Coronavirus but,

I’m not really sure that it’s the government’s fault that some guy in China ate an under cooked bat.

And I’m also not sure that the best response is to gather in large groups in public to rant and rage and to do lots of shouting.

Still, if it keeps the natives happy?

We are lucky in my part of France (Finisterre – which means the end of the world) we are one of the few departments (counties) which is not considered at risk.

This isn’t because we are more healthy here but more to do with the fact that we are so behind the times…

We haven’t got round to inventing Coronavirus yet.

On another note…

Today I shall be working on the problem where the Speed Ratings don’t get copied to the data directory every now and again.

If I manually watch the ratings being produced, they always work but…

The moment I turn my back – yes, you’ve got it.

I’m not sure what the answer is but I may have to put a 10 minute pause in the script to give it time to do everything it needs to do before sending the ratings out.

Read More about Morning News – 17/09/2020


18/09/2020 – Morning News – 18/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Whilst doing some work yesterday…

I came across an interesting angle based upon betting on the R6 top rated horse when it is the clear Forecast Favourite (using my forecast prices.)

You will need to look at the Full PDF to identify the clear Forecast Favourite.

If you do this for the following race types…

All Weather

Conditions Race (non-hc)
Listed Race (non-hc)
Maiden (non-hc)
Nursery (hc)
Selling (non-hc)

Flat

Amateur Race (hc)
Apprentice (hc)
Listed Race (non-hc)

National Hunt – Chase)

Graduation Chase (non-hc)
Listed Race (non-hc)
Maiden (non-hc)
Qualified Riders Race National Hunt – Flat

Conditional Stakes (non-hc)
Maiden (non-hc)
Pro-Am (non-hc)

National Hunt – Hurdles

Claiming (non-hc)
Conditional Stakes (hc)
Listed Race (non-hc)
Maiden (hc)
Qualified Riders Race (non-hc)

Historically (based upon 2 full years of data) you get…

Strike Rate : 79.41%
POI (to ISP): 21.15%

About 75 races a year.

Just thought I’d share.

Read More about Morning News – 18/09/2020


22/09/2020 – Morning News – 22/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Certainly…

As far as Focus Ratings was concerned,

It was a pretty good day.

Especially at Wolverhampton which was, coincidentally, a meeting that I was interested in due to some work I’m doing on All Weather racing.

From the 8 races (the top rated horse in the last race was a non-runner) we got 5 top rated winners and 17.51 points (to ISP) returned to the 8 points staked.

This sort of confirms a feeling that we should be concentrating on the lower grade AW racing and avoid Lingfield, Kempton and Southwell.

Over the long term, the numbers bear this out but…

I’m just trying to find the logic that supports them.

Read More about Morning News – 22/09/2020


23/09/2020 – Morning News – 23/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

After a fair bit of work…

I think that I’ve resolved the issue where,

Focus Ratings members aren’t all receiving their Advance Ratings email.

It seems to have worked today.

I guess that only time will tell.

Read More about Morning News – 23/09/2020


25/09/2020 – Morning News – 25/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

After yesterday’s early morning problems…

It looks like things will be fine today.

The early morning test ratings look fine to me,

Fingers crossed.

I am installing some automation code today;

This should cut my morning workload by about an hour.

Which should help to give me more time to do the rest of the stuff I’ve got planned.

Such as checking things like…

When a horse is both and EarlyBird Diamonds and Gold selection AND also an Investment Betting selections, it tend to win.

I’ll have to cross reference every day for about 6 months to verify that.

That’ll be about a days work but…

Well worth doing, I think.

Read More about Morning News – 25/09/2020


26/09/2020 – Morning News – 26/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

You know…

One of the things that I really like about my job is,

Feedback from the members.

I know that recently,

I have had some email problems and,

As a result, some emails have gone astray.

Now that that problem has been resolved, things seem to be better.

I got an email yesterday from one of the members.

James C. uses the Early Bird ratings to create magic.

Below are the screenshots…

image1


image2

I think that they speak for themselves.

Weekend Off

I am sort of taking the weekend off.

I have an old PC which is currently just a pile of parts.

I intend to put it back together just so that I can install Skype.

The idea is that I will be able to make myself available one hour a day to speak to any members who wish to talk.

Sometimes it is difficult to explain (or discuss) things in an email – talking is best.

Read More about Morning News – 26/09/2020


27/09/2020 – Morning News – 27/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

As You know…

Sunday is my day off and,

There is almost never a Morning News on a Sunday.

However, yesterday I welcomed some new members to EarlyBird Ratings and so…

I thought that I’d do a mini Morning News to show them what goes on.

New EarlyBird Ratings members – this is a cut down version of what I normally publish.

You can check out yesterday’s Morning News at Morning News – 26/09/2020

Read More about Morning News – 27/09/2020


28/09/2020 – Morning News – 08/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

After a sorely needed day off…

Which was definitely needed,

I am now back to work and raring to go.

This week will be largely spent on Intelligent-Betting.com which needs some TLC but…

Some of that work will ultimately find its way back to Focus Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 08/09/2020


29/09/2020 – Morning News – 29/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Overall…

Yesterday was a pretty disappointing day all round.

Which is strange as,

Monday are normally very good for us.

Still…

We had a pretty good day on Saturday which,

Is normally a difficult day for us.

So, I guess it balances out in the end.

Read More about Morning News – 29/09/2020


30/09/2020 – Morning News – 30/09/2020

6620418Good morning…

Overall a pretty good day for us, yesterday.

And for me…

I’ve finally converted that pile of components that was happily sleeping under a desk into,

A fully working Windows 10 computer.

It took a bit longer than expected.

But then, these days…

Everything seems to do so.

I must be getting old.

Read More about Morning News – 30/09/2020


01/10/2020 – Morning News – 01/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I have had a large number of requests for…

People to be added to Ante Post Ratings,

Spotlight Ratings and

Compass Ratings.

At the same time I have had lots of Free Trial requests.

Thus there is a bit of a backlog but,

I am doing what I can to get through it.

For those of you who are interested…

The Ante Post Ratings for the Arc may be found here… http://antepostratings.com/data/AntePostRatings-2020-10-04-Arc-de-Triomphe-270796.pdf

Read More about Morning News – 01/10/2020


02/10/2020 – Morning News -02/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Even with the best of intentions…

After a day of hard work,

Nothing much actually got done yesterday.

Still, there’s always today.

We are being promised the arrival of Storm Alex today…

It is supposed to be as bad as the storm of 1987,

So I doubt that I’ll be going out anyway.

Read More about Morning News -02/10/2020


05/10/2020 – Morning News – 05/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

After a well needed weekend off…

I now have a notebook crammed with jobs I need to do.

I will be working through this over the next few days.

I also have a substantial email backlog to process.

Please be patient,

I will get there in the end.

Read More about Morning News – 05/10/2020


06/10/2020 – Morning News – 06/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was a good day…

I actually ticked more things off my to do list than,

I added to it.

I’m even starting to clear the email backlog.

I have completed the Antepost ratings for Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes and the Cesarewitch.

And also, for Sunday’s International Stakes and the Irish Cesarewitch at Curragh and the JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase at Limerick.

Today I’ll be doing the AntePost ratings for the big meeting at Ascot on the 17th October and also, the Melbourne Cup.

If you’ve requested access to these ratings and I haven’t complied, please nag me again and I’ll make it happen – it would be best if you send an email with AntePost Ratings as the subject/title.

Read More about Morning News – 06/10/2020


07/10/2020 – Morning News – 07/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I think that yesterday can best be summed up as…

One of those days.

Nothing seemed to go to plans and the,

There were problems with the Early Bird Ratings.

Still, it’s all been sorted now and today’s early morning test ratings look good.

So, let’s hope that today is a better day and I get more work done.

Read More about Morning News – 07/10/2020


13/10/2020 – Morning News – 13/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I do apologise for the slight lack of Morning News over the last few days.

I am now on an alcohol and caffeine free diet and…

That seems to be helping with my sleep problems.

I’ve got a fair bit of work to catch up on but…

I have found a way of semi-automating the Ante Post ratings which will save me some time (it took me 8 hours to manually rate the Cesarwitch and the Irish Cesarwitch which is a big chunk of my time.)

Read More about Morning News – 13/10/2020


14/10/2020 – Morning News – 14/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Just a bit of a heads up…

The ratings are going to be a little bit late today.

During the early morning my hosting company did some work on the server;

Basically bringing it up to date with various things.

During that time, the server was unavailable.

They’ve only just finished and I’ve just kicked off the ratings process.

Whereas we’ve normally been getting the ratings at about 6am,

Today it’ll be nearer 7am.

Read More about Morning News – 14/10/2020


15/10/2020 – Morning News – 15/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Well…

It seems that large parts of France are going under curfew from Saturday.

And everyone will have to be at home by 9pm.

Obviously this doesn’t affect my little part of back of beyond Brittany as…

Even before Coronavirus,

Our bars close at 8pm and most of us are tucked up in bed by 9pm.

Today is the 7th day of my no alcohol, no caffeine diet.

It seems like the 70th.

Yesterday afternoon I went to the bar to have an orange juice and found that I was sitting close to the expresso machine just so I could inhale the smell every time the patron made a coffee for some lucky bugger.

Read More about Morning News – 15/10/2020


16/10/2020 – Morning News – 16/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall be largely working on Place Profits.

When I launched Place Profits in February of this year it was a cast iron system which gave a more than decent return on stakes as long as the previous 2 years strike rate of 80% was upheld.

However, this year has been an incredibly difficult year for systematic approaches to horse racing selections.

The 10 weeks of no racing have really changed the structure of our races.

This has affected the results for Place Profits.

Today I shall be looking at additional filters to return Place Profits to its rightful place as a decent, long term, profitable long term strategy.

I will, additionally, be looking at the possibility of splitting the stake so that 80% goes on the place bet and 20% goes on a win bet…

Or, perhaps, it should be a 70%/30% split?

Whatever I come up with today…

I shall return Place Profits to long term profitability.

At this point I should also mention Early Bird Ratings and its built in Diamonds and Gold system.

From yesterday evening I am not publishing the Diamonds selections; only the Diamonds and Gold selections.

In September 2020 we had 79 selections.

Of those, 17 were Diamonds selections and 62 were Diamonds and Gold selections.

From the Diamonds selections we got 4 winners from the 17 selections…

That equates to a strike rate of 23.53%

From the 62 Diamonds and Gold selections we got 25 winners.

That equates to a strike rate of 40.32%

Thus, I shall only be publishing (and proofing) the Diamonds and Gold selections from now on.

Any systematic approach to horse racing can vary over time.

What worked last year may work less well this year.

When we face a totally different year, in terms of horse racing, due to Covid 19 and all the related restrictions…

It doesn’t hurt to re-visit any systems and try to improve them in order to take recent events into account.

I will make Place Profits profitable again and…

I will make Early Bird Ratings Diamonds and Gold even more profitable.

On a personal note…

It has now been 8 whole days since I’ve had any coffee or wine.

It seems like 8 years!

Actually, I’m missing caffeine more than alcohol.

I am about to chew my fingers off!

Am really starting to miss Wine O’Clock as well.

I’m not really sure that my doctor knows what he’s talking about?

On a positive angle….

I am actually sleeping longer.

I’m not too sure that I’m sleeping better but,

Without my morning caffeine infusion,

I’m still feeling very tired.

I do have to say that I’m actually getting far more work done so…

It can’t be all bad.

Read More about Morning News – 16/10/2020


17/10/2020 – Morning News – 17/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

As I mentioned yesterday…

I have been doing some work on Place Profits.

Now, Place Profits is based on 2 years of data and, even with its ups and downs, actually makes a pretty decent profit over the long term.

But…

Since racing resumed in June of this year,

The profits just haven’t been there.

I expected a bad June and July (and I got what I expected) but…

Since then, the recovery, although apparent, isn’t as good as I would have liked.

Thus…

I spent 9 hours yesterday reviewing different filters in order to return Place Profits to profit.

Eventually I determining that, under the current circumstances, a change to the maximum forecast SP from 6.0 to less that 3.0 does the trick.

So, from today I shall be showing the Place Profits selections as per normal but also, the selections using the above filter; I shall call those selections Place Profits Refined.

Once a month I shall check the profitability for both sets of selections; it may be that the original set of filters comes back into profitability and, thus, the need for the Refined selections reduces.

Read More about Morning News – 17/10/2020


18/10/2020 – Morning News – 18/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I spent a good part of the day, yesterday…

Working on Ante Post Ratings.

This will probably be a regular Saturday job as,

It makes sense to block out one day a week; that way it’s more likely that the ratings will get done.

And, also, you will know when to expect updates.

As a result, I now have AntePost Ratings for the following races…

Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3

Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

I am now working on the Melbourne Cup.

Fun, fun, fun – 65 entries, all of which have to be manually rated and, to top it all, I have to do the currency conversions from Australian dollars into GB sterling as well as the normal currency conversions from Euros into pounds.

I hope that the pocket calculator is up to it?


On a different point…

Now that I’ve applied the new filter to Place Profits, not only are the Place selections now profitable but…

You can actually make more money by backing those self same selections to win.

Now, I don’t want to come up with a hard, firm strategy for Place Profits.

Obviously I shall continue to publish the original strategy and selections and, also, the new refined strategy but…

From talking to many of you, I understand that some of you are using your own strategies based upon the basic set of selections.

From about Wednesday for next week, I shall be available on Skype/phone for an hour a day should you wish to discuss issues/strategies in a more direct way that can happen using email.

I’ll publish the number (and the time slots) sometime next week.

Read More about Morning News – 18/10/2020


19/10/2020 – Morning News – 19/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I have finished the Ante Post Ratings for the Melbourne Cup and…

Am just starting to work on the King George IV stakes.

That one is going to be a bit difficult and will need to be updated at the end of next month.

However, I have also got 3 French races to compile the ratings for, for tomorrow’s Spotlight Ratings and they have to take priority.

If there are any interesting races coming up, over the next few months, that you want Ante Post Ratings for, just let me know.

I seem to have got into a rhythm where I getting things done but I may have to limit Spotlight Ratings to 20 races a week.

Obviously I already only look at Graded, Group and Listed races but we seem to do better in Japan and France so perhaps it’s best to concentrate on them to start with.

If there are foreign high quality races that you are interested in, just let me know and I’ll try to look out for them to compile ratings for.


I’ve been receiving a high number of emails from people asking me to add them to this service or that service.

But it has become apparent that a high number of people aren’t aware of what they are entitled to.

So, a major job for me today is to create a post which explains who gets what, how much it costs and what they get for free.

I’ll make it a sticky post so that it’ll show up on the front page of the website – just above that post where I waffle on about “Why a PMU ain’t your average Bookies Shop.”

I’ll email you all once that post has been created/published.


Place Profits

As you are aware, I have adjusted one of the four filters (you can see how I created the system here ) for Place Profits.

However, I would like to take a fresh look at the strategy.

I intend to do that in public.

So, we have the original strategy which worked fine for 2018 and 2019 and worked well in 2020 until the 23rd of March when GB (and IRE) racing shut down.

Since the resumption of GB and IRE racing the results haven’t been as expected.

I have adjusted one filter for the original system in order to revert us back to profits but..

I think that now is the time to take another look at Place Profits and see if we can come up with an even better strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 19/10/2020


20/10/2020 – Morning News – 20/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I’d like to thank those of you who have emailed to to comment on Place Profits.

I am becoming more and more convinced that a strategy where higher priced horses are used is a good way of complementing our current strategy.

I’ll take another look at that later on but…

This is going to be a shortish Morning News as I have to rush to get tomorrow’s Hong Kong ratings done and,

I’ve also got 3 French races to rate for today’s Spotlight Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 20/10/2020


21/10/2020 – Morning News – 21/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I had a bit of struggle yesterday…

To try to create Ante Post ratings for the King George VI Chase.

I’m not so sure why I’ve got such a bee in my bonnet about this but,

It is one of the few horses races that I make a point of actually watching every year.

Place Profits

As far as Place Profits is concerned…

By adjusting the Forecast Price filter we seem to be getting better results but, of course, the prices will be very low.

And we will get fewer selections.

I have done some analysis of a really simple system that we may be able to use to supplement the current system.

Basically, if the horse has a Confidence of 200% and is running in a non-handicap race, it achieves a Place Win strike rate of 78.59% but,

And here’s the interesting bit,

At Place prices of 2.28 (that’s the highest price I’ve seen so far.)

There was a 6 month period back in 2019 when, for one reason or another, the BSP prices didn’t get loaded into my database.

Thus, today I shall largely be glued to Timeform manually adding those prices.

Read More about Morning News – 21/10/2020


21/10/2020 – Pick and Mix – what you get…

The services that you are entitled to..

il_340x270.2562060142_jpskThere has been some confusion, recently, about what services members of the various service that I provide are entitled to.

As you know, during the 10 week period when we had no GB or IRE racing, I published some new sites so that we could carry on with Hong Kong racing and International Group, Graded and Listed races.

Although these are paid services, I decided to let Focus Ratings members (and members of my other services) access them for free.

Now some of my services have to always be paid only – this is generally when I am sharing the revenue with business partners; it would be rude of me to give access to those services away for free.

Below are the list of my services and lists of what other services that those members can access for free.

Below that list there are descriptions of the individual services.

Read More about Pick and Mix – what you get…


23/10/2020 – Morning News – 23/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

I do apologise for the slight lack of a Morning News yesterday.

I had a bad night and didn’t get much sleep.

Unfortunately, that meant that not much work got done yesterday.

However…

I’m back on form and raring to go today.

Read More about Morning News – 23/10/2020


24/10/2020 – Morning News – 24/10/2020

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall largely be catching up with emails.

It would be nice to think that I can start next week fully caught up.

That would be a great way to start the week.

I have just noticed that the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Punchestown – 15th November 2020) has just popped up on the Racing Post.

I shall be doing the Ante Post ratings for that race today.

I am still faffing around trying to do the ratings for the King George VI Chase but, with only 18 showing on the Betfair exchange and only 20 showing on the sportsbook, it is proving rather difficult.

Read More about Morning News – 24/10/2020